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For most businesses, focusing on the math and making incremental improvements to the statistical methodology is a waste of time. There is a "good enough" approa
by ssharp 10y ago
For most businesses, focusing on the math and making incremental improvements to the statistical methodology is a waste of time. There is a "good enough" approach to using tools like Optimizely and VWO.
Instead, they should be focusing on the quality of the tests they run. Quality hypotheses, preferably backed by data-driven insights into behavior that test very clear, if not dramatic, changes to the user flow will be what leads to bottom-line improvements, not increasing the mathematical merit and rigor of poorly-conceived tests. Of course, doing both is ideal but I put more fault on the testing software than the companies using it.
Keep track of historical conversion rate and adjust/account for noise in your historical conversion rate. Conceive a testing program that focuses on the quality testing and you'll likely see an upward trend in that historical conversion rate.