4 ms·

This is not true. What if the EU realises that even if both walk away as winners no one will easily follow the UK, because frankly no other EU member state is

This is not true. What if the EU realises that even if both walk away as winners no one will easily follow the UK, because frankly no other EU member state is in a similar position to the UK? There's only 9 member states who didn't adopt the Euro, so basically everyone else already disqualified to leave the EU. When you look at the remaining 9 (Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Sweden, and the United Kingdom) there is either no appetite for an exit (Sweden, Denmark) or the country has simply no leverage at all. So would the EU risk to fall apart when the UK gets a good deal? Nope. Remember you heard it first here.

alkonaut 10y ago
If Austria or Italy had referendums that decided to leave the EU they would do so (And leave the Euro at the same time, obviously). Whether or not it's technically o legally possible to leave doesn't really matter. I don't consider it likely but I also don't consider the current political climate "rational", sadly. The Eurozone is really what should be dismantled, because it's flawed by design. I'd hate to see the union itself which is originally a peace and trade project disintegrate because of a flawed currency and disagreements on people movement.
- dustinmoris 10y ago
  The point is not if another country like Austria or Italy would/want to have a referendum. If a country just dislikes the EU and wants to leave then the outcome of the UK/EU deal will not make a difference. What matters though is if another country thinks they can leave the EU with the outlook of a "better" deal outside the EU. The EU would fall apart if countries would believe that, but what I tried to say is that the EU doesn't really have to fear that, because no other country is even remotely in the same position as the UK, so the chances of a "better" deal outside the EU are almost non-existent, because the fact alone that they don't have their own currency would makes significantly more difficult. Therefore the EU can actually work out a good deal for the UK and the EU without jeopardizing the EU membership of others. Makes sense?
  - alkonaut 10y ago
    I think the driving force for a leave vote anywhere, just like in the UK would be immigration mostly (ironically perhaps mostly non EU immigration fear, which is hardly a EU matter) and pure populism in the form of "we don't want to be governed from Brussels". The question is just if the fear of the (economic) consequences outweigh it. I fear that voters of several EU countries would accept severe economic consequences, or at least the risk thereof, because immigration or because Brussels. Italy won't vote out because of a "better deal outside" (nor do I believe the UK did!). They'll vote out if populists can convince them there will be fewer immigrants without disastrous economic consequences.
- gpderetta 10y ago
  In Italy referenda on international treaties are prohibited by the constitution. The only option is an ad-hoc constitutional law that allows for a specific (non-binding) referendum and requires a large (2/3) majority on the parliament. Interestingly, this was last done in '89, to vote to transition from the (economical) European Community to the (political) European Union.

alkonaut 10y ago

If Austria or Italy had referendums that decided to leave the EU they would do so (And leave the Euro at the same time, obviously). Whether or not it's technically o legally possible to leave doesn't really matter. I don't consider it likely but I also don't consider the current political climate "rational", sadly. The Eurozone is really what should be dismantled, because it's flawed by design. I'd hate to see the union itself which is originally a peace and trade project disintegrate because of a flawed currency and disagreements on people movement.

dustinmoris 10y ago
The point is not if another country like Austria or Italy would/want to have a referendum. If a country just dislikes the EU and wants to leave then the outcome of the UK/EU deal will not make a difference. What matters though is if another country thinks they can leave the EU with the outlook of a "better" deal outside the EU. The EU would fall apart if countries would believe that, but what I tried to say is that the EU doesn't really have to fear that, because no other country is even remotely in the same position as the UK, so the chances of a "better" deal outside the EU are almost non-existent, because the fact alone that they don't have their own currency would makes significantly more difficult. Therefore the EU can actually work out a good deal for the UK and the EU without jeopardizing the EU membership of others. Makes sense?
- alkonaut 10y ago
  I think the driving force for a leave vote anywhere, just like in the UK would be immigration mostly (ironically perhaps mostly non EU immigration fear, which is hardly a EU matter) and pure populism in the form of "we don't want to be governed from Brussels". The question is just if the fear of the (economic) consequences outweigh it. I fear that voters of several EU countries would accept severe economic consequences, or at least the risk thereof, because immigration or because Brussels. Italy won't vote out because of a "better deal outside" (nor do I believe the UK did!). They'll vote out if populists can convince them there will be fewer immigrants without disastrous economic consequences.
gpderetta 10y ago
In Italy referenda on international treaties are prohibited by the constitution. The only option is an ad-hoc constitutional law that allows for a specific (non-binding) referendum and requires a large (2/3) majority on the parliament. Interestingly, this was last done in '89, to vote to transition from the (economical) European Community to the (political) European Union.