there's also the truism that if your model predicts a 25% chance for something, then 25% of the time the thing should happen. Even if the model said 95% for Cl

there's also the truism that if your model predicts a 25% chance for something, then 25% of the time the thing should happen. Even if the model said 95% for Clinton, there's still a small possibility for Trump to win. It's hard to accept because 95% is really high! But hey, people win the lottery, right?