> 538 made a model, not a poll; they are only ever as good as the polls they represent, and even then, they still managed to be better than quite a lot of publi

> 538 made a model, not a poll; they are only ever as good as the polls they represent, and even then, they still managed to be better than quite a lot of public polling and commentary. I completely agree with almost all of your post, but want to defend the polls, even though you didn't explicitly blame the polls. FiveThirtyEight themselves consistently defend the polls even in the 2016 election. For example, they ran an article a few days before the election that Trump was only "a normal polling error" away from Clinton [1], and in their podcasts and articles since the election, have stated that in fact an average polling error was exactly what happened. The problem with a normal polling error in this case was that the election was close, and in particular, states that were critical for Clinton were very close. And FiveThirtyEight's model was the only one to really recognize the degree of uncertainty this really created by giving Trump a 25 or 33% chance. [1] https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-behind-clinton/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-just-a-normal-...