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I'm not so sure about that. I think there are plenty of manual jobs that I don't think will be done by robots any time soon. Plumbers, electricians - just don'

• K0SM0S 10y ago
  > Plumbers, electricians - just don't see it happening. Like many other "optimistics" about AI I think reality will be much more of a hybrid one, i.e. plumbers or electricians will be aided, not replaced, by AI and robots. It's like the 100 horses in your car, it didn't kill the transportation industry but took it to a whole other level. Imagine as a plumber having an army of tiny drones to fix things you can't even see, let alone reach, as a human; from diagnosis to actual repair. You would wield such power that eventually one man could fix/maintain a whole skyscraper alone and still be home for dinner with the kids. It's the difference between what an office worker could do with pen and paper and the post office, and what they could do once came the telephone: suddenly you could talk to hundreds of people every day without moving. Then came computers, internet, now AI and robots... A century ago, thousands of men couldn't do some of what you alone accomplish in your office today. The most menial tasks will be automated for sure, however whether or not a given job is entirely made of such tasks is another matter entirely. I, for one, don't think it a bad thing that we eliminate brainless or skill-less jobs, I'd much rather pay for UBI for these people until they learn new skills more likely to be rewarding on a self-growth level. I also think it a good thing that we supplement most professions with ever better tools -- think what a doctor or lawyer can do with a computer and a few ad hoc databases that they couldn't do without. Even as an assistant, if you are freed from most menial tasks (e.g. "computer, send a thank you email to these customers with our classic style") then you can focus on creating more value for the person you assist. You can reclaim your worth as a highly-functioning human being, add much more value to the table, while robots and AI takes care of things your kid could do (but never will, and that is a good thing). It's basically what allowed civilizations to work twice less (in time, work hours) and actually keep growing that GDP. I don't know where AI takes us in this regard, but I wouldn't be surprised if on average we could eventually maintain the same level of growth working orders of magnitude less. But since humans love doing stuff, I'm sure most won't work less, they'll just do so much more --and we might yet reconnect with double-digit growth in western countries.
• Eridrus 10y ago
  > Plumbers, electricians - just don't see it happening. There may not be robot plumbers, but that's not the only possible outcome. I've seen tradespeople complaining about others who don't really know what they're doing and just look things up on YouTube in the van outside. If we had an AI system that could look at images/lidar of plumbing and interact with you to diagnose issues and fast self-driving part delivery, that could result in a system where routine plumbing work gets done by people who would otherwise call a plumber. I'm not saying this will likely happen soon, but there are other ways this could have an impact besides full-on robotic automation.