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We can argue this all day long since neither of us has data to back up our assertions. So, I'll reframe this somewhat. Technology in the past created new more
by josho 10y ago
We can argue this all day long since neither of us has data to back up our assertions. So, I'll reframe this somewhat.
Technology in the past created new more efficient processes, freeing people to create new processes. That describes your example above and technology advancements largely to date. What's different now is not that we are making more efficient processes, rather technology is displacing human skills. Concretely, when the horse was replaced with a car both still required a driver. But, the driver was so much more productive thanks to the advancement in the process. However, today, it is not the process that is advanced it is the human skill that is replaced--ie. there will be no driver. So, it is the human skills that technology is encroaching on. So, anything that I can physically do, we could soon engineer a robot to do as well. Price/performance may not make sense today, but we know tech gets cheaper/better every year, labour doesn't. So, it is not processes that are being replaced but human skill.
So, with this in mind, I don't think you can argue that we'll have full employment in 100 years time.