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The undeniable math is that machine productivity will grow exponentially faster than human productivity. Organics have had a few billion year head start on mach
by briholt 10y ago
The undeniable math is that machine productivity will grow exponentially faster than human productivity. Organics have had a few billion year head start on machines, so it's of no consequence that we've been able to scramble in front of our metallic friends for their few-hundred-year infancy. The day will come when machine productivity dwarfs that of humans by orders of magnitude. It would be absurd to task humans with new jobs when we have limitless machines that are infinitely smarter, stronger, and more reliable. The concept of a "new job" won't even exist because machines will immediately meet any new demand before humans are even aware it exists.
- cjlars 10y ago> The day will come when machine productivity dwarfs that of humans by orders of magnitude It already does. Have you tried to build a house without power tools? Strong-form, self perpetuating, Terminator style AI has not even been invented yet and you're jumping to the closing chapters.
- briholt 10y agoThis is a discussion about closing chapters isn't it? Are we merely disputing the date on which a billion power screwdrivers can direct themselves and then Instagram pics of their accomplishments? I give it 50-150 years.
- cjlars 10y agoNo. We're (or I, at least, am) debating whether the concept of 'new job' continues to exist.
- Retric 10y agoI don't think several orders of magnitude is really true. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P73REgj-3UE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P73REgj-3UE is slower than a modern house, but not that slow. Further, with just hand tools the Amish where known for raising a barn in one day.
- euyyn 10y agoDid they build those hand tools by hand? Honest question.
- vorotato 10y agoThey're amish they build everything by hand
- euyyn 10y agoAs in, they won't buy a hammer from the town down the road? Instead they'll cast the metal head, and chop the wood for the handle? Mine their own metal ore? It can't go all the way through.
- unclenoriega 10y agoAmish restrictions on technologies aren't absolute. They can buy things from "English" companies. Some of them even use mobile phones.[0] [0] http://amishamerica.com/do-amish-use-telephones/ http://amishamerica.com/do-amish-use-telephones/
- unclenoriega 10y agoSome do this, but (most?) Amish can definitely buy industrially-produced tools. Some even use (non-electric) power tools: http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2013/02/22/172626089/inside-an-amish-trade-show http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2013/02/22/172626089/insid...
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- cjlars 10y agoI don't think the specific example matters. Obviously, you couldn't build a skyscraper without machinery or fly through the air in a metal tube. I'll grant that the US middle class is only 2 orders of magnitude above subsistence (~$2 / day) living.
- Florin_Andrei 10y agoIt doesn't have to be that way. All you need is a bit of advance in robotics, coupled with stronger AI. Perhaps a proper AGI is not even required for that. Just good enough multipurpose ANI combos.