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The problem with AI is that it's dynamite when it comes to capital-labour relations. You can't compete with something with perfect agency that never gets sick.

The problem with AI is that it's dynamite when it comes to capital-labour relations. You can't compete with something with perfect agency that never gets sick. Now, are there going to be new categories of work and new economies? Yes. But in the meanwhile, for a category of work that defines a plurality if not majority of the functioning economy (basically anything that doesn't require creativity across multiple domains or empathy), there are going to be SEVERE income share implications. Keep in mind that labour share of income has gone down drastically in the last few decades and that as a result, real wages have stagnated -- which has produced significant unrest in developed countries and unseated the established political order. If that trend continues...

josho 10y ago
> You can't compete with something with perfect agency that never gets sick. Now, are there going to be new categories of work and new economies? Follow your own logic to its conclusion. If AI does that then what are the new jobs? We are eliminating entire job categories. While the new jobs will be in entirely different categories (e.g. manual labor will be all but eliminated, and the new jobs will be in creative industries). There is very little cross over between those job categories so we are heading to a future with a significant portion of the population jobless.
- EternalData 10y ago
  Machines are bad at transferring domain knowledge and generalizing/making unconventional linkages between topics -- what some would regard as creativity, they're also not going to be very good at empathy without essentially solving for strong AI and regularized data on human emotions -- there also are going to be human jobs because of protectionist instincts. ex: A machine right now would actually probably do a more optimal job of determining interest rates if given more economic data and more data on outputs/outcomes, but replacing the Fed and analysts under it with a machine is a political football and a half to even say. If we solve for strong AI, we might as well kiss the species goodbye, never mind just jobs -- but the AI we have in between is not going to completely eliminate every category of work in the present, never mind future ones that might arise.
  - EternalData 10y ago
    I think we agree on the larger point, just to the degree of the damage. I think I'm on a 7.5, you might be on a 9 in terms of damage AI can do to employment.
    - josho 10y ago
      When I wrote my comment I was thinking long term (e.g. decades). Regardless, the disruption is going to be sufficient enough to force us to redefine our economy.

josho 10y ago

> You can't compete with something with perfect agency that never gets sick. Now, are there going to be new categories of work and new economies? Follow your own logic to its conclusion. If AI does that then what are the new jobs? We are eliminating entire job categories. While the new jobs will be in entirely different categories (e.g. manual labor will be all but eliminated, and the new jobs will be in creative industries). There is very little cross over between those job categories so we are heading to a future with a significant portion of the population jobless.

EternalData 10y ago
Machines are bad at transferring domain knowledge and generalizing/making unconventional linkages between topics -- what some would regard as creativity, they're also not going to be very good at empathy without essentially solving for strong AI and regularized data on human emotions -- there also are going to be human jobs because of protectionist instincts. ex: A machine right now would actually probably do a more optimal job of determining interest rates if given more economic data and more data on outputs/outcomes, but replacing the Fed and analysts under it with a machine is a political football and a half to even say. If we solve for strong AI, we might as well kiss the species goodbye, never mind just jobs -- but the AI we have in between is not going to completely eliminate every category of work in the present, never mind future ones that might arise.
- EternalData 10y ago
  I think we agree on the larger point, just to the degree of the damage. I think I'm on a 7.5, you might be on a 9 in terms of damage AI can do to employment.
  - josho 10y ago
    When I wrote my comment I was thinking long term (e.g. decades). Regardless, the disruption is going to be sufficient enough to force us to redefine our economy.