Gary King is a pretty prominent political scientist. It's unlikely that this is unoriginal work. Yes, that's an appeal to authority, but I think the methods use

Gary King is a pretty prominent political scientist. It's unlikely that this is unoriginal work. Yes, that's an appeal to authority, but I think the methods used are what's novel. And don't discount just having some evidence! Here's the article: http://gking.harvard.edu/50c http://gking.harvard.edu/50c edit: it's also in the apsr, which is one of the poli sci journals. There are a lot less people doing this kind of analysis in an academic setting than one might expect.