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Agreed. Look at what happened with the recent Canadian EU deal, which was nearly derailed by Wallonia, the French speaking half of Belgium [1]. A UK EU trade de

Agreed. Look at what happened with the recent Canadian EU deal, which was nearly derailed by Wallonia, the French speaking half of Belgium [1]. A UK EU trade deal will require unanimity from the EU 27. Given the current political climate, that just won't happen. So "hard Brexit" is inevitable. Theresa May is just making a virtue of a necessity. She does have one very powerful negotiating lever: London is Europe's financial capital. When the debt management office of any Eurozone state issues new govt bonds to the primary market the bidders are primary dealer trading desks in London. The ultimate measure of Eurozone govt financial stability is whether an individual govt can attract bids for 100% of a new issue, and at what price. Since 2010 there have been occasions Italy and Greece have failed to get bids for new debt. When that happens Germany and the ECB have to step in. [1] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/27/belgium-reaches-deal-with-wallonia-over-eu-canada-trade-agreement https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/27/belgium-reache...

ar0 10y ago
This might be a negotiating lever with the actual trade negotiators, who care about these things and know about such intricacies. But note that every deal with the UK will also have to pass through all the national parliaments in the EU. And there (as in the general public) you won't find much love for banks in general and British investment banks in particular. When Philip Hammond talks about retaining access to "hedging" and "derivatives", to most people those are not things to safeguard but evil market speculation that should be eliminated. I have the feeling that (from the EU perspective) the opportunity to punish banks with a difficult Brexit will actually make negotiations for the UK harder, not easier.
mathw 10y ago
The banks are already making their plans to relocate into other EU cities prior to Brexit. Hard Brexit is inevitable, unless we just don't leave. But May won't do that, because she's decided it's the unanimous will of the people that we storm out and slam the doors closed behind us and then barricade them and lay some mines just for good measure.

ar0 10y ago

This might be a negotiating lever with the actual trade negotiators, who care about these things and know about such intricacies. But note that every deal with the UK will also have to pass through all the national parliaments in the EU. And there (as in the general public) you won't find much love for banks in general and British investment banks in particular. When Philip Hammond talks about retaining access to "hedging" and "derivatives", to most people those are not things to safeguard but evil market speculation that should be eliminated. I have the feeling that (from the EU perspective) the opportunity to punish banks with a difficult Brexit will actually make negotiations for the UK harder, not easier.

mathw 10y ago

The banks are already making their plans to relocate into other EU cities prior to Brexit. Hard Brexit is inevitable, unless we just don't leave. But May won't do that, because she's decided it's the unanimous will of the people that we storm out and slam the doors closed behind us and then barricade them and lay some mines just for good measure.