4 ms·
> "While critics might note that Apple’s price increase is greater than the pound’s loss in value, financial analysts predict that the market still hasn’t fully
by easytiger 10y ago
> "While critics might note that Apple’s price increase is greater than the pound’s loss in value, financial analysts predict that the market still hasn’t fully priced in the cost of Brexit — that is to say the pound still has further to fall."
Someone should probably tell the worlds biggest futures exchange that their forward rate for GBPUSD is wrong then:
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/g10/british-pound.html http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/g10/british-pound.html
Methinks someone is talking nonsense
> o what mechanisms keep the price from instantly dropping if "everyone" agrees it should be lower?
It would drop. It hasn't, because that is not what the "experts" consensus is
- andysinclair 10y agoForward prices are not a predictor, they are simply based on interest rate differentials between two currencies.
- tomarr 10y agoNot necessarily - the market has priced in multiple future outcomes according to their probability, each which see a massively different valuation of pound sterling. Article 50/hard Brexit/etc. is now very likely (lower pound sterling value), but there’s still the potential of a late change to this approach or a parliament refusal of the bill (higher pound sterling value).
- notahacker 10y agoAnd of course it suits Apple to focus on the highest probability event, particularly since (unlike FX traders) they don't stand to very quickly lose large amounts of money if low probability but cannot be ruled out yet positive news for the pound happens. The worst case scenario for Apple if the pound rebounds involves people thinking their UK App Store is a bit overpriced until they revise prices again.
- noja 10y agoGBP/USD is listed as "strong sell" on https://uk.investing.com/currencies/gbp-usd-contracts https://uk.investing.com/currencies/gbp-usd-contracts (right panel) Earlier today it was "strong buy".