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Europe is learning the same thing that the United States did in its early days: it's impossible for a union of disparate states to survive without strong, overa

Europe is learning the same thing that the United States did in its early days: it's impossible for a union of disparate states to survive without strong, overarching federal authority. It's as unpalatable to member states now as it was to the original colonies, but the alternative is to be subsumed by some outside, more centrally organized power. The Russians understand this, which is why they work to encourage nationalism among EU members. Once the infighting has weakened everyone, they can swoop into the vacuum and become this central authority.

rbanffy 10y ago
From what I hear, most of those who find the EU "unpalatable" have huge misconceptions about how it is organized, how the various bodies are staffed, how representatives are chosen and what the different bodies do. It's in part because national news give little focus to it and, therefore, its function becomes obscure, prime material for propaganda.
dogma1138 10y ago
The problem is that the EU was founded on the principle of never superseding national sovereignty or identity.
- alphonsegaston 10y ago
  The US was founded on similar principles with regard to its states and had to revise its entire political system just thirteen years into its existence. When faced with various existential threats throughout its history, the US has always renegotiated these terms towards more centralized federal power. Europe faces a similar challenge now, and will either peacefully arrive at more centralized political authority, or dissolve and watch its former members be subsequently swallowed up by some larger outside power.
  - hollerith 10y ago
    Do you believe that Britain and France would submit to being swallowed up without using their nukes against whoever is trying to swallow them?
    - alphonsegaston 10y ago
      Why do you presume that this has to be done militarily? The Russians have been funneling money and influence into the UK for decades. They're loaning money to Le Pen in France. There's no need to risk confrontation if you can get your politcal allies to cede everything to you that stands in your way.
      - dogma1138 10y ago
        And how is this different than US foreign policy?
  - dogma1138 10y ago
    You have 2 nuclear powers in Europe, and a few other countries that host nukes under the NATO nuclear arms sharing treaty which gives them discretionary access to said arsenal. You have NATO and even without a centralized government the European Economic Area and the European Free Trade Association which together form one of the largest economies in the world. Europe would do just fine if it decides to scale back on the pan-European EU government faculties and just go back to it's let's make trade, not war roots. And lastly there isn't a single outside power wanting or being capable of swallowing Europe, Russia doesn't have plans to expand westward beyond it's immediate strategic needs (mainly a warm water port), it only cares about security and mobility as well for the EU not to overstep and have NATO on Russia's borders or try to circumvent Russia's economy by taking control of the caspian and near east oil and gas routes. Trade prevent war, the benefits of a central government beyond that are fairly limited, the Federal government didn't stop the US civil war from happening it might have initiated it, but the US had their civil war and came out stronger, and Europe had it's own share of not so civil wars and also came out stronger in the end. Currently there about zero chance of war happening in Europe between European powers, whilst there is a lot of Euro-skepticism the worst that may come out of it is bye bye to the European Parliament and a few other institutions. The EEA would still be there, the Council of Europe would still be there and everyone would go their merry way.
    - alphonsegaston 10y ago
      Well, I hope for all our sakes that a historically expansionist, authoritarian regime exercises as much restraint as you ascribe to them. I'm personally more skeptical. In an era where the US seems to be rapidly cozying up to Russia, denigrating NATO, and withdrawing public support for former allies, things are impossible until they are not.
rdtsc 10y ago
> The Russians understand this, which is why they work to encourage nationalism among EU members. The Americans would do that as well. Even those are friendly allies (compared to Russia or China say). It is still beneficial to play them against each other. Say retaliate against France by loosening tariffs for German made goods.

rbanffy 10y ago

From what I hear, most of those who find the EU "unpalatable" have huge misconceptions about how it is organized, how the various bodies are staffed, how representatives are chosen and what the different bodies do. It's in part because national news give little focus to it and, therefore, its function becomes obscure, prime material for propaganda.

dogma1138 10y ago

The problem is that the EU was founded on the principle of never superseding national sovereignty or identity.

alphonsegaston 10y ago
The US was founded on similar principles with regard to its states and had to revise its entire political system just thirteen years into its existence. When faced with various existential threats throughout its history, the US has always renegotiated these terms towards more centralized federal power. Europe faces a similar challenge now, and will either peacefully arrive at more centralized political authority, or dissolve and watch its former members be subsequently swallowed up by some larger outside power.
- hollerith 10y ago
  Do you believe that Britain and France would submit to being swallowed up without using their nukes against whoever is trying to swallow them?
  - alphonsegaston 10y ago
    Why do you presume that this has to be done militarily? The Russians have been funneling money and influence into the UK for decades. They're loaning money to Le Pen in France. There's no need to risk confrontation if you can get your politcal allies to cede everything to you that stands in your way.
    - dogma1138 10y ago
      And how is this different than US foreign policy?
- dogma1138 10y ago
  You have 2 nuclear powers in Europe, and a few other countries that host nukes under the NATO nuclear arms sharing treaty which gives them discretionary access to said arsenal. You have NATO and even without a centralized government the European Economic Area and the European Free Trade Association which together form one of the largest economies in the world. Europe would do just fine if it decides to scale back on the pan-European EU government faculties and just go back to it's let's make trade, not war roots. And lastly there isn't a single outside power wanting or being capable of swallowing Europe, Russia doesn't have plans to expand westward beyond it's immediate strategic needs (mainly a warm water port), it only cares about security and mobility as well for the EU not to overstep and have NATO on Russia's borders or try to circumvent Russia's economy by taking control of the caspian and near east oil and gas routes. Trade prevent war, the benefits of a central government beyond that are fairly limited, the Federal government didn't stop the US civil war from happening it might have initiated it, but the US had their civil war and came out stronger, and Europe had it's own share of not so civil wars and also came out stronger in the end. Currently there about zero chance of war happening in Europe between European powers, whilst there is a lot of Euro-skepticism the worst that may come out of it is bye bye to the European Parliament and a few other institutions. The EEA would still be there, the Council of Europe would still be there and everyone would go their merry way.
  - alphonsegaston 10y ago
    Well, I hope for all our sakes that a historically expansionist, authoritarian regime exercises as much restraint as you ascribe to them. I'm personally more skeptical. In an era where the US seems to be rapidly cozying up to Russia, denigrating NATO, and withdrawing public support for former allies, things are impossible until they are not.

rdtsc 10y ago

> The Russians understand this, which is why they work to encourage nationalism among EU members. The Americans would do that as well. Even those are friendly allies (compared to Russia or China say). It is still beneficial to play them against each other. Say retaliate against France by loosening tariffs for German made goods.