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If you think this is the same you haven't been paying attention to what's happening in the industry. Moore's Law as we know it is dead, shrinking the node size
by magila 10y ago
If you think this is the same you haven't been paying attention to what's happening in the industry. Moore's Law as we know it is dead, shrinking the node size isn't cutting costs like it used to. A lot of people are still in denial over this, but it's going to have major repercussions in the IC industry.
- mathgeek 10y agoI'm not referencing Moore's Law at all, nor am I hinging my argument on a single piece of input. I'm simply using decades of historical data to claim that it's more likely to continue downward than upward. Would you mind providing some data points that explicitly or implicitly predict an upward trend over the next 5-10 years?
- magila 10y agoI wouldn't go so far as to predict a long term upward trend, but prices are not going to continue their historic exponential drop. Like I said, cost reduction achieved by shrinking the node size (i.e. Moore's Law) was the main enabler for the exponential drop, but that trend has ended. This is common knowledge for anyone who follows the semiconductor industry, if you want data look it up yourself. Prices will surely still drop, but only incrementally. In particular, the PPU of SSDs will not be competitive with HDDs for the foreseeable future.
- mathgeek 10y agoAh, you're not talking about what I'm talking about. That's the issue here. I'm not predicting "historic exponential drop" at all. Glad we can agree that prices will still drop.