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thanks for your questions. i cannot answer them satisfactorily. i have to admit, on closer examination, my theory looks wrong. if we get to self-driving cars,
by HillaryBriss 10y ago
thanks for your questions. i cannot answer them satisfactorily.
i have to admit, on closer examination, my theory looks wrong.
if we get to self-driving cars, uber driver might be viewed as a job that appeared just for "a moment" (a long moment, admittedly), but it doesn't take all that long to learn to be an Uber driver, compared to how long you could work as one. so that's not a great example.
if Watson succeeds at replacing MDs one day, we may eventually have fewer of them, but they'll still be around i bet. (in a way, Watson has already "replaced" human chess and go players, but people continue to spend tons of time learning those games and competing professionally).
then i thought about a clerk at a video store. even that job lasted like, what, twenty years or something?
i was trying to imagine what it would be like for most people looking for a role to play in the "quickly automating all around me" economy of the future, a future where software and AI and robots are destroying human jobs faster and faster and faster.
i imagined lots of desperate workers scurrying around, trying to be relevant in a very complicated world where it's hard to become relevant. lots of study/practice. a month later, some new robot takes over that little niche you found.
but that isn't quite how it has been working, as you have pointed out. most job types last longer than "just a moment" it seems.
thanks again.