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This is not what the article assets, but here goes a different theory: as the pace of automation increases, new job types appear for a moment, then disappear. E

This is not what the article assets, but here goes a different theory: as the pace of automation increases, new job types appear for a moment, then disappear. Each new job type requires a special expertise, but the amount of time required to gain that expertise is large relative to the job type's duration. Only the most desperately unemployed try for those jobs. It's better than nothing.

ch4s3 10y ago
Could you give an example for the curious?
a3n 10y ago
Are your new job types appearing because of automation, or are they just any new job type which is quickly automated? I wonder if the most efficient way to teach an AI how to do a job will be to maximize its ability to learn from a human in general, and then watch a human do a task before taking it over. We're already doing that now, when the Disneys et al. bring in H1B replacements to learn a job that they are going to take over.
WalterSear 10y ago
I can't think of any jobs being created that require special training and then 'only exist for a moment'. All I can think of are menial machine-handling jobs, that almost any adult could do, such as driving a car or picking items off a shelf in a warehouse.
HillaryBriss 10y ago
thanks for your questions. i cannot answer them satisfactorily. i have to admit, on closer examination, my theory looks wrong. if we get to self-driving cars, uber driver might be viewed as a job that appeared just for "a moment" (a long moment, admittedly), but it doesn't take all that long to learn to be an Uber driver, compared to how long you could work as one. so that's not a great example. if Watson succeeds at replacing MDs one day, we may eventually have fewer of them, but they'll still be around i bet. (in a way, Watson has already "replaced" human chess and go players, but people continue to spend tons of time learning those games and competing professionally). then i thought about a clerk at a video store. even that job lasted like, what, twenty years or something? i was trying to imagine what it would be like for most people looking for a role to play in the "quickly automating all around me" economy of the future, a future where software and AI and robots are destroying human jobs faster and faster and faster. i imagined lots of desperate workers scurrying around, trying to be relevant in a very complicated world where it's hard to become relevant. lots of study/practice. a month later, some new robot takes over that little niche you found. but that isn't quite how it has been working, as you have pointed out. most job types last longer than "just a moment" it seems. thanks again.

ch4s3 10y ago

Could you give an example for the curious?

a3n 10y ago

Are your new job types appearing because of automation, or are they just any new job type which is quickly automated? I wonder if the most efficient way to teach an AI how to do a job will be to maximize its ability to learn from a human in general, and then watch a human do a task before taking it over. We're already doing that now, when the Disneys et al. bring in H1B replacements to learn a job that they are going to take over.

WalterSear 10y ago

I can't think of any jobs being created that require special training and then 'only exist for a moment'. All I can think of are menial machine-handling jobs, that almost any adult could do, such as driving a car or picking items off a shelf in a warehouse.

HillaryBriss 10y ago

thanks for your questions. i cannot answer them satisfactorily. i have to admit, on closer examination, my theory looks wrong. if we get to self-driving cars, uber driver might be viewed as a job that appeared just for "a moment" (a long moment, admittedly), but it doesn't take all that long to learn to be an Uber driver, compared to how long you could work as one. so that's not a great example. if Watson succeeds at replacing MDs one day, we may eventually have fewer of them, but they'll still be around i bet. (in a way, Watson has already "replaced" human chess and go players, but people continue to spend tons of time learning those games and competing professionally). then i thought about a clerk at a video store. even that job lasted like, what, twenty years or something? i was trying to imagine what it would be like for most people looking for a role to play in the "quickly automating all around me" economy of the future, a future where software and AI and robots are destroying human jobs faster and faster and faster. i imagined lots of desperate workers scurrying around, trying to be relevant in a very complicated world where it's hard to become relevant. lots of study/practice. a month later, some new robot takes over that little niche you found. but that isn't quite how it has been working, as you have pointed out. most job types last longer than "just a moment" it seems. thanks again.