3 ms·

Can a collapse of global civilization be avoided?

15 points by mgolanbari 10y ago

my_first_acct 10y ago
Authors are Paul and Anne Ehrlich, authors of the famous 1968 book "The Population Bomb" [1]. From early editions of that book: "The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate." Fortunately they were wrong, at least in their timing. From their new article: "Environmental problems have contributed to numerous collapses of civilizations in the past. Now, for the first time, a global collapse appears likely. Overpopulation, overconsumption by the rich and poor choices of technologies are major drivers; dramatic cultural change provides the main hope of averting calamity." [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Population_Bomb https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Population_Bomb
- astrodust 10y ago
  Based on available facts at the time it seemed like a reasonable conclusion but they should have also realized the facts they did have were limited. Chemical fertilizers, industrialization, mass production, these all got us out of a jam. The full effect of early bio-engineering efforts had yet to play out, and the work of Normal Borlaug (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norman_Borlaug https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norman_Borlaug) wasn't in full swing. Today we're bumping up against different hard limits, like fresh water, which could cause enormous problems if not dealt with before it reaches a critical state.
gumby 10y ago
Ah yes, Erlichs, still after all these years trying to be right via the stopped-clock technique: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon–Ehrlich_wager https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon–Ehrlich_wager
backprop1989 10y ago
Unfortunately, the world is never going to end; it's just going to keep dragging on and on.
buzzybee 10y ago
For every age we will surely have a bogeyman in our impact, whether it's urban streets covered in manure, excessive smog, food shortages, acid rain, the depletion of the ozone layer, or climate change. The point in reading a text like this shouldn't be to be scared, but to assert yourself towards whatever the empirical evidence shows will improve matters. After all, there's no trick that will let you escape this fate, whatever it is.

15 points by mgolanbari 10y ago

Authors are Paul and Anne Ehrlich, authors of the famous 1968 book "The Population Bomb" [1]. From early editions of that book: "The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate." Fortunately they were wrong, at least in their timing. From their new article: "Environmental problems have contributed to numerous collapses of civilizations in the past. Now, for the first time, a global collapse appears likely. Overpopulation, overconsumption by the rich and poor choices of technologies are major drivers; dramatic cultural change provides the main hope of averting calamity." [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Population_Bomb https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Population_Bomb

astrodust 10y ago
Based on available facts at the time it seemed like a reasonable conclusion but they should have also realized the facts they did have were limited. Chemical fertilizers, industrialization, mass production, these all got us out of a jam. The full effect of early bio-engineering efforts had yet to play out, and the work of Normal Borlaug (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norman_Borlaug https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norman_Borlaug) wasn't in full swing. Today we're bumping up against different hard limits, like fresh water, which could cause enormous problems if not dealt with before it reaches a critical state.

gumby 10y ago

Ah yes, Erlichs, still after all these years trying to be right via the stopped-clock technique: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon–Ehrlich_wager https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon–Ehrlich_wager

backprop1989 10y ago

Unfortunately, the world is never going to end; it's just going to keep dragging on and on.

buzzybee 10y ago

For every age we will surely have a bogeyman in our impact, whether it's urban streets covered in manure, excessive smog, food shortages, acid rain, the depletion of the ozone layer, or climate change. The point in reading a text like this shouldn't be to be scared, but to assert yourself towards whatever the empirical evidence shows will improve matters. After all, there's no trick that will let you escape this fate, whatever it is.