5 ms·

If you get diagnosed with cancer, would you go to med school and wait until you graduate and can fully understand the diagnosis and how the prescribed treatment

by E6300 10y ago

If you get diagnosed with cancer, would you go to med school and wait until you graduate and can fully understand the diagnosis and how the prescribed treatment was arrived at by your doctor before you follow it, or would you follow the treatment as closely as possible as soon as possible? Perhaps climate scientists don't know with completely precision everything there is to know about climate change. But as far as anyone can tell no one has a more accurate picture. "This theory may be imperfect [not even 'is imperfect'; we just don't know] so we should disregard it completely" is a Nirvana fallacy.

mistermann 10y ago
> Perhaps climate scientists don't know with completely precision everything there is to know about climate change. Don't be surprised when people don't trust you if you don't disclose that fact.
- DonHopkins 10y ago
  Says the guy who brings bullshit to a discussion about calling bullshit.
  - mistermann 10y ago
    Oh, which bullshit was that?
    - DonHopkins 10y ago
      You claimed that Judith Curry was "not allowed to speak", for example. Here's something she allowed herself to speak: "Once we get over this little bump of activism, if the Trump administration will put us on a slightly reassuring and saner footing, that will allow all this to die down," she said. "We can always hope." -Judith Curry http://www.eenews.net/stories/1060047798 http://www.eenews.net/stories/1060047798 Good luck with that long term plan that depends on Trump putting us on a saner footing! Are you really sure she isn't allowed to speak? She's on FOX News an awful lot. And is it really true that people blink when they're lying? Starting at 3:00 I counted Judith Curry blinking 85 times in 60 seconds during this recent Tucker Carson interview on FOX News. At that rate, she must have blinked 387 times during that 4:33 minute interview! Forget about the Butterfly Effect: her eyelash fluttering itself could affect global climate patterns! https://youtu.be/g5LpwL4NKbw?t=3m0s https://youtu.be/g5LpwL4NKbw?t=3m0s
      - mistermann 10y ago
        If you literally interpret me, the police should have been called because not being allowed to utter a single word anywhere would be a major human rights abuse. I could say to you: why are you talking about mammal excrement? Oh, "of course" I shouldn't have used that interpretation of the word, right? Will you extend the same courtesy to me?
        DonHopkins 10y ago
        The topic of this discussion is "Calling bullshit". Will you define exactly what you mean by the term "not allowed to speak", and list the names of scientists who were not allowed to speak?
- yongjik 10y ago
  "Doc, will I die of liver cancer if I keep drinking?" "Yes, science is very certain on that. You will die." "So, you know everything there is to know about livers or cancers, with complete precision?" "What? Of course not, why would anyone even think that?" "Hah, I thought so, now I won't trust you!"
  - mistermann 10y ago
    The difference is, the vocal climate change advocates (who do not understand the science) assert that in fact there is no disagreement on the matter. Oh wait, that's not completely true, they say the scientific community is "98% in agreement", but they are dishonest about what exactly the 98% of scientists are agreeing to.
    - yongjik 10y ago
      That's like saying you decided to stop trusting doctors about cancers, because you saw a TV reporter talking about chemotherapy and it was clear he didn't know anything about cancer. And I'm not sure what you mean by "dishonest", because I think the mainstream media's position is roughly "If we don't cut out fossil fuel we'll be in deep shit pretty soon (say, before 2100, probably sooner)", and it is a statement I think >90% of climate scientists would agree on. (Actually, I think many would argue we're in deep shit now. E.g., massive reef death in Australia.)
      - mistermann 10y ago
        I disagree. My observation is that the scientific community is making assertions of what is more or less the current understanding of the state of global warming to the best of their knowledge. Advocates and opportunists are taking this and converting it to something like "98% percent of scientists agree that global warming is 100% caused by man and we are absolutely doomed if we do not do something right now." (obviously I am being somewhat hyperbolic.) So the scientists are observing this and thinking to themselves "What these people are saying is not technically true, but it seems like most likely an effective approach to invoke action amongst the general public, so we'll just keep our mouths shut." It may very well turn out that this is in fact the most pragmatic approach. What I am saying is, it may turn out that this isn't the most pragmatic approach. Addressing climate change costs money, and lots of it. People generally don't like spending money unless there is a very obvious and more or less immediate benefit. Now imagine a convincing leader comes along who validates this distrust, and can point to legitimate cracks in these assertions (actually, I don't think Trump even had to do this, but don't underestimate the power of YouTube propaganda videos)....you might just find yourself with a president that you never would have imagined could have been elected. It's interesting in a thread where we're generally talking about the nature of public conversation, where I am actually mostly on the side of believing that man-made climate change is a real thing, but my sense is that most people think (or speak as if at least) I am completely incorrect in the things I say, that there is no disagreement in the scientific community on some of the specifics. It's really quite an extraordinary claim. (iirc, this is one of the big reasons Joel Spolsky quit blogging, he found that he had to qualify every single sentence with multiple sentences of disclaimers, as too many people refused to discuss in an intellectually honest way, always nitpicking individual statements while completely ignoring the spirit of the discussion. Likely putting words in his mouth somewhat, but you get the idea.)
- E6300 10y ago
  What do you mean? Does anyone believe that a given scientific theory explains exactly and totally a phenomenon? If they do, that's their problem. Science doesn't claim to have perfect answers. Until we find Laplace's demon, the best we can say is "theory A is better supported by evidence than theory B". If we have nothing better than A, is there any reason not to treat it as true?
  - mistermann 10y ago
    The current popular mainstream politically correct stance is that "the science is in and the time for debate is over." That is a fact, and if scientists find it efficient to go about it that way (rather than correct that somewhat incorrect stance), then there will be a small portion of people who will dig their feet in against those sorts of dishonest tactics. And furthermore, some of these people will write convincing rebuttals (after all, there is a completely science based disagreement with the status quo opinion) that voters who want to not believe will typically interpret as "the scientists are lying to us!". Until the scientific community comes clean, as well as "polices" the outspoken public advocates, the climate change cause will always have this Achilles heel - I am not pointing it out to win an argument, I am pointing it out in the hopes that they fix the problem, as I believe the theory is mostly correct.
    - E6300 10y ago
      So a scientist's job is not just to do science, but to, as you put it, police the general public's view of his discipline?
      - mistermann 10y ago
        A scientist can do whatever he/she wants, whether they ok with various people twisting their statements into half truths while remaining silent on the sidelines. Society as a whole can decide how they want to approach convincing their fellow citizens to act in a certain manner. Look down your nose at me all you want, but we all have to live with the consequences of how the chosen path plays out. The way it has played out on planet Earth, 2017 A.D. is that Donald Trump has been elected President of the United States. I hope everyone enjoys the ride they helped create.

by E6300 10y ago

mistermann 10y ago

> Perhaps climate scientists don't know with completely precision everything there is to know about climate change. Don't be surprised when people don't trust you if you don't disclose that fact.

DonHopkins 10y ago
Says the guy who brings bullshit to a discussion about calling bullshit.
- mistermann 10y ago
  Oh, which bullshit was that?
  - DonHopkins 10y ago
    You claimed that Judith Curry was "not allowed to speak", for example. Here's something she allowed herself to speak: "Once we get over this little bump of activism, if the Trump administration will put us on a slightly reassuring and saner footing, that will allow all this to die down," she said. "We can always hope." -Judith Curry http://www.eenews.net/stories/1060047798 http://www.eenews.net/stories/1060047798 Good luck with that long term plan that depends on Trump putting us on a saner footing! Are you really sure she isn't allowed to speak? She's on FOX News an awful lot. And is it really true that people blink when they're lying? Starting at 3:00 I counted Judith Curry blinking 85 times in 60 seconds during this recent Tucker Carson interview on FOX News. At that rate, she must have blinked 387 times during that 4:33 minute interview! Forget about the Butterfly Effect: her eyelash fluttering itself could affect global climate patterns! https://youtu.be/g5LpwL4NKbw?t=3m0s https://youtu.be/g5LpwL4NKbw?t=3m0s
    - mistermann 10y ago
      If you literally interpret me, the police should have been called because not being allowed to utter a single word anywhere would be a major human rights abuse. I could say to you: why are you talking about mammal excrement? Oh, "of course" I shouldn't have used that interpretation of the word, right? Will you extend the same courtesy to me?
      - DonHopkins 10y ago
        The topic of this discussion is "Calling bullshit". Will you define exactly what you mean by the term "not allowed to speak", and list the names of scientists who were not allowed to speak?
yongjik 10y ago
"Doc, will I die of liver cancer if I keep drinking?" "Yes, science is very certain on that. You will die." "So, you know everything there is to know about livers or cancers, with complete precision?" "What? Of course not, why would anyone even think that?" "Hah, I thought so, now I won't trust you!"
- mistermann 10y ago
  The difference is, the vocal climate change advocates (who do not understand the science) assert that in fact there is no disagreement on the matter. Oh wait, that's not completely true, they say the scientific community is "98% in agreement", but they are dishonest about what exactly the 98% of scientists are agreeing to.
  - yongjik 10y ago
    That's like saying you decided to stop trusting doctors about cancers, because you saw a TV reporter talking about chemotherapy and it was clear he didn't know anything about cancer. And I'm not sure what you mean by "dishonest", because I think the mainstream media's position is roughly "If we don't cut out fossil fuel we'll be in deep shit pretty soon (say, before 2100, probably sooner)", and it is a statement I think >90% of climate scientists would agree on. (Actually, I think many would argue we're in deep shit now. E.g., massive reef death in Australia.)
    - mistermann 10y ago
      I disagree. My observation is that the scientific community is making assertions of what is more or less the current understanding of the state of global warming to the best of their knowledge. Advocates and opportunists are taking this and converting it to something like "98% percent of scientists agree that global warming is 100% caused by man and we are absolutely doomed if we do not do something right now." (obviously I am being somewhat hyperbolic.) So the scientists are observing this and thinking to themselves "What these people are saying is not technically true, but it seems like most likely an effective approach to invoke action amongst the general public, so we'll just keep our mouths shut." It may very well turn out that this is in fact the most pragmatic approach. What I am saying is, it may turn out that this isn't the most pragmatic approach. Addressing climate change costs money, and lots of it. People generally don't like spending money unless there is a very obvious and more or less immediate benefit. Now imagine a convincing leader comes along who validates this distrust, and can point to legitimate cracks in these assertions (actually, I don't think Trump even had to do this, but don't underestimate the power of YouTube propaganda videos)....you might just find yourself with a president that you never would have imagined could have been elected. It's interesting in a thread where we're generally talking about the nature of public conversation, where I am actually mostly on the side of believing that man-made climate change is a real thing, but my sense is that most people think (or speak as if at least) I am completely incorrect in the things I say, that there is no disagreement in the scientific community on some of the specifics. It's really quite an extraordinary claim. (iirc, this is one of the big reasons Joel Spolsky quit blogging, he found that he had to qualify every single sentence with multiple sentences of disclaimers, as too many people refused to discuss in an intellectually honest way, always nitpicking individual statements while completely ignoring the spirit of the discussion. Likely putting words in his mouth somewhat, but you get the idea.)
E6300 10y ago
What do you mean? Does anyone believe that a given scientific theory explains exactly and totally a phenomenon? If they do, that's their problem. Science doesn't claim to have perfect answers. Until we find Laplace's demon, the best we can say is "theory A is better supported by evidence than theory B". If we have nothing better than A, is there any reason not to treat it as true?
- mistermann 10y ago
  The current popular mainstream politically correct stance is that "the science is in and the time for debate is over." That is a fact, and if scientists find it efficient to go about it that way (rather than correct that somewhat incorrect stance), then there will be a small portion of people who will dig their feet in against those sorts of dishonest tactics. And furthermore, some of these people will write convincing rebuttals (after all, there is a completely science based disagreement with the status quo opinion) that voters who want to not believe will typically interpret as "the scientists are lying to us!". Until the scientific community comes clean, as well as "polices" the outspoken public advocates, the climate change cause will always have this Achilles heel - I am not pointing it out to win an argument, I am pointing it out in the hopes that they fix the problem, as I believe the theory is mostly correct.
  - E6300 10y ago
    So a scientist's job is not just to do science, but to, as you put it, police the general public's view of his discipline?
    - mistermann 10y ago
      A scientist can do whatever he/she wants, whether they ok with various people twisting their statements into half truths while remaining silent on the sidelines. Society as a whole can decide how they want to approach convincing their fellow citizens to act in a certain manner. Look down your nose at me all you want, but we all have to live with the consequences of how the chosen path plays out. The way it has played out on planet Earth, 2017 A.D. is that Donald Trump has been elected President of the United States. I hope everyone enjoys the ride they helped create.