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I often wonder what's missing to create and simulate a detailed economic model down to the individual level for and entire country or even the world. There are
by pjtr 10y ago
I often wonder what's missing to create and simulate a detailed economic model down to the individual level for and entire country or even the world.
There are only 7 billion people to simulate, that doesn't actually sound like that much anymore.
Obviously one would not simulate every individual with realistic human-like AI, but with a statistical economic model.
How much and what kind of data would one need for this to be useful, for example to predict if a certain new political initiative will actually work?
Or is this already being done? Or is it not needed? Or just still too expensive?
- shalmanese 10y agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory_(fictional) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory_(fictional)
- pjtr 10y agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Large-scale_macroeconometric_model https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Large-scale_macroeconometric_m... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computational_economics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computational_economics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Living_Earth_Simulator_Project https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Living_Earth_Simulator_Project
- rconti 10y agoDamn. No offense meant to the parent (because I wasn't even smart enough to come up with this on my own in 2017, much less the 1940s), but it's humbling to see someone having such insight 70 years ago.
- simonh 10y agoI read Asimov in my teens back in the 80s, but the fact that Chaos Theory had already pretty much killed a lot of those ideas as a plausible possibility took the edge off a bit.
- pja 10y agoYou’re going to love reading “Red Plenty” https://www.amazon.co.uk/Red-Plenty-Francis-Spufford/dp/0571225241 https://www.amazon.co.uk/Red-Plenty-Francis-Spufford/dp/0571... :)