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"Instead, the picture is one of a highly rare confluence of events, some linked, some unrelated, that exposed weaknesses in the stock market large and small."
by rfreytag 16y ago
"Instead, the picture is one of a highly rare confluence of events, some linked, some unrelated, that exposed weaknesses in the stock market large and small." Please can we stop calling these "highly rare"? When market crises happen every few years - they aren't rare.
Here is a list off the top of my head:
- Nixon Wage and Price Controls of 1971 (coupled to floating the dollar see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_freeze http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_freeze)
- Oil Crisis of 1973 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_oil_crisis http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_oil_crisis)
- Third World Default (hit major US banking hard in the mid 70's. I remember Walter Wriston then head of Citibank [then First National City Bank], lobbying a great deal in the press on this subject at the time, see: ).
- The Sterling Crisis of 1976 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pound_sterling#The_1976_sterling_crisis http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pound_sterling#The_1976_sterlin...)
- Stagflation Crisis last 70's(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation)
- Farm Debt Crisis of late 70's (tied to Carter Grain Embargo in 1980: http://www.socialistaction.org/news/199910/farmcrisis.html http://www.socialistaction.org/news/199910/farmcrisis.html)
- Reagan/Volker Recession of 1981-1982 (http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2010/03/volcker_recession http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2010/03/volcker_...)
- Latin American Debt Crisis of 1982: (triggered by too much lending by major 1st-world banks to 3rd-world nations see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latin_American_debt_crisis http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latin_American_debt_crisis)
- Japanese Asset Price Bubble of 1986-1991 (mostly property producing the lost generation: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble)
- Black Monday in 1987 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987))
- US Savings and Loan Crisis of late 80's (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Savings_and_Loan_Crisis http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Savings_and_Loan_Crisis)
- Black Wednesday (Sterling leaving the ERM with Soro's help in 1992, see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pound_sterling#Following_the_European_Currency_Unit http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pound_sterling#Following_the_Eu...)
- Swedish Banking Crisis and Run on Swedish Currency of 1992(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Sweden#Crisis_of_the_1990s http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Sweden#Crisis_of_the...)
- Mexican Peso Collapse of 1994 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_economic_crisis_in_Mexico http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_economic_crisis_in_Mexico)
- Euro collapse (late 90's)
- Asian Financial Crisis of 1997(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Asian_Financial_Crisis http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Asian_Financial_Crisis)
- Russian Financial Crisis of 1998 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Russian_financial_crisis http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Russian_financial_crisis)
- LTCM in 1998 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Term_Capital_Management http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Term_Capital_Management)
- Peregrine Fund Collapse in 1998 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peregrine_Investments_Holdings) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peregrine_Investments_Holdings))
- Argentine Economic Crisis of 1999-2002(there are so many Wikipedia finds it necessary to put a date on this one see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_economic_crisis_(1999%E2%80%932002) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_economic_crisis_(1999...)
- Dot Com Crash starting in 2001 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot_com_crash http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot_com_crash)
- South Korean Crash of mid-2000's (reading the Buffett bio _Snowball_ he enjoys learning about and finding good buys in the Korean market, see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Snowball http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Snowball I cannot find a more specific reference to the South Korean Crash at this time)
- Argentina devaluation of 2002 (http://www.wsws.org/articles/2002/jan2002/arg-j08.shtml http://www.wsws.org/articles/2002/jan2002/arg-j08.shtml)
- US Real Estate Collapse of 2006 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_housing_bubble http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_housing_bubble)
- Flash-Crash in 2010 (tied to potential Greek Debt Default and possibly some financial hacking: see: http://theweek.com/article/index/202769/The_Dow_Jones_flash_crash_5_theories http://theweek.com/article/index/202769/The_Dow_Jones_flash_... and http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704879704575236771699461084.html?mod=WSJ_hps_LEFTWhatsNews http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870487970457523...)
Order is likely off and I am missing a few. I am finding a lot more but welcome your suggestions and reorderings (email me, see profile, of you don't want to post).
This Flash-Crash sounds just like a 0 day exploit to me. The solutions and vulerability just like trying to keep an OS stable while running untrusted code. As long as it is more profitable to destabilize our economic "OS" rather than support it we'll see even more such snatch-and-grabs.
One solution: put all profits in interest-earning escrow for a week or so. That will slow down the rate of an attack allowing it to be identified and for an exploit to be closed.
P.S. Black Tuesday and Black Thursday commonly refer to events leading to the Wall Street Crash of 1929 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_Crash_of_1929 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_Crash_of_1929). And Black Friday is the biggest shopping day of the year i the U.S. falling after Thanksgiving Day on Thursday and the Weekend - so another important financial day.
- borism 16y agojudging by your list, late 2000s were the most stable market we had in decades...
- rfreytag 16y agoThe Real Estate Collapse has taken a lot of players to the sidelines along with their empty pockets. Note that Buffett has been very busy lately. NOTE: - I could not find specific dates for the California Real Estate Crash (coupled to DoD funding cutbacks, maybe early 90's?). I remember finding entire high-end strip malls empty in La Jolla, CA. - Also forgot to mention the Texas Oil and Real Estate Bust - mid 80's (I met a realor from TX who was doing foreclosures back then that told me in 2005 that it wasn't going to happen again: http://books.google.com/books?id=http://books.google.com/books?id=DaIEl3w5EbMC&lpg=PA29&ots=L2ATVbIx3G&dq=texas%20real%20estate%20and%20oil%20crash&pg=PA29#v=onepage&q=texas%20real%20estate%20and%20oil%20crash&f=false http://books.google.com/books?id=http://books.google.com/boo...) - Enron Scandal of 2001 (tied to Dot Com collapse, see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron_scandal http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron_scandal)