3 ms·
"Suppose everyone accepts the self-sampling assumption and everyone has to bet on whether they are in a blue or red cubicle. Then 90% of all persons will win th
by basicplus2 10y ago
"Suppose everyone accepts the self-sampling assumption and everyone has to bet on whether they are in a blue or red cubicle. Then 90% of all persons will win their bets and 10% will lose. Suppose, on the other hand, that the self-sampling assumption is rejected and people think that one is no more likely to be in a blue cubicle; so they bet by flipping a coin. Then, on average, 50% of the people will win and 50% will lose."
This bit is wrong because if everyone flipped a coin roughly half will pick blue and half will pick red and roughly 90% who flipped and got blue will be right but only 10% of those who flipped and got red will be right.