Oh, I agree that it doesn't make much sense. Especially considering that weather forecasting is basically the index case for "hard to predict", i. e. chaos theo

Oh, I agree that it doesn't make much sense. Especially considering that weather forecasting is basically the index case for "hard to predict", i. e. chaos theory. I actually did an analysis of GDP growth forecast for my thesis. If I remember correctly, only the forecasts made in October or later (for that year!) were better than just using the long-term averages – all across central banks and renown research institutions. (Although I should add that the blanket dismissal of economics many draw from such examples may also be a bit to simplistic. It seems like we do have a much better set of tools these days than we had a hundred years ago and even if a crisis hits, we may be better at controlling it before people are starving or starting wars)