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No news here. 1. More networks, more devices. It's like saying that Windows sells more than Macbook Pros. 2. Everyone and their mothers knows that in a month

No news here. 1. More networks, more devices. It's like saying that Windows sells more than Macbook Pros. 2. Everyone and their mothers knows that in a month Apple will introduce a new one 3. Soon the big majority of cell phones will be what we usually call smartphones. It would be fool to think that one single device will maintain dominate the marketshare. The point is that if you look at the single device, no-one is even closed to Apple's number.

detst 16y ago
> The point is that if you look at the single device, no-one is even closed to Apple's number. Really? Is that what matters? It seems to me the more significant thing would be the OS and not any one device, especially for HN-types that write apps and build sites for OSes/browsers and not a piece of hardware.
- javery 16y ago
  The most significant thing is actually what kind of market there is for the apps/sites we are building. Market is not just about the number of users, it's about how much those users are buying. It's the reason that Mac developers can make more than their PC counterparts on many types of applications, because the Mac users buy more software. (at least I know I have since I switched).
  - revaaron 16y ago
    My experience over the last few weeks spent using a new Nexus One as a former iPhone certainly supports this. Frankly, I'm stunned at the difference in quality and breadth of applications available in the App Store vs Android Market- compared to the App Store, the Market is like Softpedia or Tucows...
    - krschultz 16y ago
      The install base of the iPhone still dwarfs Android, this is unit sales for one quarter. The iPhone has been out for a while longer than Android. But if this quarter a sign of things to come, what platform do you want to be selling apps on long term?
      - slyn 16y ago
        Both?
      - revaaron 16y ago
        I'd have to agree with slyn- both. I think it's most likely I'd be selling apps for Android in the long term, if only because I don't have to live by 3.3.1... I wouldn't be surprised if a divide not unlike Mac vs PC software developed- traditionally, Mac users were a smaller group but more willing to pay for overall better software.
        lutorm 16y ago
        I just looked at the Android SDK for the first time the other day, and it seemed to indicate that you must write your apps in Java? That seems even more restrictive than 3.3.1 to me. Or did I miss something?
- davidedicillo 16y ago
  The problem is that doing great applications that sells well it's harder when you need to make them looks polished like iphone ones with such a big variety of devices. Soon your fridge will use Android, that doesn't mean I'd like to develop apps for it. Also iPhone users have been "trained" for years with iTunes to buy digital content.
  - dannyr 16y ago
    When the IPhone was selling more than Android, Apple defenders were saying that you should choose a platform that has a bigger market (i.e. IPhone). Now that Android is outselling the IPhone, you should now choose based how many users actually buy digital content.
    - jasonwocky 16y ago
      I don't see a distinction between "bigger market" and "how many users actually buy digital content". I think these are the same thing.
moultano 16y ago
Does that matter to us? When I'm deciding what to support as a developer I care only about the size of the platform.
- davidedicillo 16y ago
  It's not about the size of the market as much as the quality. Would you rather have 100,000 potential users and make 1,000 sales or 200,000 users and make 800. Or maybe make the same amount of sale but being able to charge more because you know that who spend $500 for a phone is more incline to spend $10 on an app than somebody who spent $100?
  - krschultz 16y ago
    Ok, but that is a pile of assumptions. If the iPhone user buys 3 apps for every 1 the Android user does, but in a couple years there are 10 times as many Android users, where do you sell your app? The attach rate and the market size make all the difference, and there is no data to support the conclusion you are trying to make. A gaming PC is a hell of a lot more expensive than a console, yet their attach rate is way way lower than a console.
- sueders100 16y ago
  "Does that matter to us?" Yes, I imagine fragmentation would matter when it comes to developing for a platform.
  - revaaron 16y ago
    Indeed. Fragmentation is probably the biggest reason we'll never see Android Market-sales on a per-device basis top what each iPhone user spends in the App Store- there's a wife range of CPU power, RAM, graphics capability, peripherals, multitouch or not, etc on Android devices. Like being back in the world of Windows CE...
    - not_an_alien 16y ago
      The same is happening to the iPhone ecosystem; at a slower pace, but it's happening. Before it was the iPhone 2G; now it's iPhone 2G, 3G, 3GS, iPad, soon the new iPhone 4G... soon there will be way too many differences in resolution, screen size, CPU and OS too. Sales per-device is irrelevant, IMO. If I sell 100 for 10 devices, it's better than selling 90 for 3 devices. It's not like I have to add one IF() condition for each new model in my code; merely that I have to plan for slower CPUs and different screen sizes and resolutions, and when I do so, it's for a whole group of similar devices.
buster 16y ago
"Soon the big majority of cell phones will be what we usually call smartphones." My guess here is, that this will be a major winning point for Android, as i think that the next-gen low cost smartphones (presumably the ones that will most likely be bought by current featurephone owners) will be Android ones. Vodafone in germany will sell an Android phone for 130€ (prepaid, 1€ with contract) soon, for example. Even more so, this may be a huge advantage in the emerging markets like china and india.
ergo98 16y ago
>No news here. Is this like "the seven stages of grief" or something? Yeah, there is big news here, denial-be-damned. A few short months ago we were all told that there was just so much confusion in Android-land. So many choices and so many versions it was a major turn off for consumers. Instead the one-sized-fits-all iPhone model was the winner (and it was). Now it's "duh...of course Android moves ahead" as if that's the new reality. >Everyone and their mothers knows that in a month Apple will introduce a new one The Nexus 2 will be out in a very short while. The Samsung Galaxy S will be out with 3x the GPU power. The Evo 4G of course. And on, and on, and on. >The point is that if you look at the single device, no-one is even closed to Apple's number. It was never about a single device. It has never been a single device.

detst 16y ago

> The point is that if you look at the single device, no-one is even closed to Apple's number. Really? Is that what matters? It seems to me the more significant thing would be the OS and not any one device, especially for HN-types that write apps and build sites for OSes/browsers and not a piece of hardware.

javery 16y ago
The most significant thing is actually what kind of market there is for the apps/sites we are building. Market is not just about the number of users, it's about how much those users are buying. It's the reason that Mac developers can make more than their PC counterparts on many types of applications, because the Mac users buy more software. (at least I know I have since I switched).
- revaaron 16y ago
  My experience over the last few weeks spent using a new Nexus One as a former iPhone certainly supports this. Frankly, I'm stunned at the difference in quality and breadth of applications available in the App Store vs Android Market- compared to the App Store, the Market is like Softpedia or Tucows...
  - krschultz 16y ago
    The install base of the iPhone still dwarfs Android, this is unit sales for one quarter. The iPhone has been out for a while longer than Android. But if this quarter a sign of things to come, what platform do you want to be selling apps on long term?
    - slyn 16y ago
      Both?
    - revaaron 16y ago
      I'd have to agree with slyn- both. I think it's most likely I'd be selling apps for Android in the long term, if only because I don't have to live by 3.3.1... I wouldn't be surprised if a divide not unlike Mac vs PC software developed- traditionally, Mac users were a smaller group but more willing to pay for overall better software.
      - lutorm 16y ago
        I just looked at the Android SDK for the first time the other day, and it seemed to indicate that you must write your apps in Java? That seems even more restrictive than 3.3.1 to me. Or did I miss something?
davidedicillo 16y ago
The problem is that doing great applications that sells well it's harder when you need to make them looks polished like iphone ones with such a big variety of devices. Soon your fridge will use Android, that doesn't mean I'd like to develop apps for it. Also iPhone users have been "trained" for years with iTunes to buy digital content.
- dannyr 16y ago
  When the IPhone was selling more than Android, Apple defenders were saying that you should choose a platform that has a bigger market (i.e. IPhone). Now that Android is outselling the IPhone, you should now choose based how many users actually buy digital content.
  - jasonwocky 16y ago
    I don't see a distinction between "bigger market" and "how many users actually buy digital content". I think these are the same thing.

moultano 16y ago

Does that matter to us? When I'm deciding what to support as a developer I care only about the size of the platform.

davidedicillo 16y ago
It's not about the size of the market as much as the quality. Would you rather have 100,000 potential users and make 1,000 sales or 200,000 users and make 800. Or maybe make the same amount of sale but being able to charge more because you know that who spend $500 for a phone is more incline to spend $10 on an app than somebody who spent $100?
- krschultz 16y ago
  Ok, but that is a pile of assumptions. If the iPhone user buys 3 apps for every 1 the Android user does, but in a couple years there are 10 times as many Android users, where do you sell your app? The attach rate and the market size make all the difference, and there is no data to support the conclusion you are trying to make. A gaming PC is a hell of a lot more expensive than a console, yet their attach rate is way way lower than a console.
sueders100 16y ago
"Does that matter to us?" Yes, I imagine fragmentation would matter when it comes to developing for a platform.
- revaaron 16y ago
  Indeed. Fragmentation is probably the biggest reason we'll never see Android Market-sales on a per-device basis top what each iPhone user spends in the App Store- there's a wife range of CPU power, RAM, graphics capability, peripherals, multitouch or not, etc on Android devices. Like being back in the world of Windows CE...
  - not_an_alien 16y ago
    The same is happening to the iPhone ecosystem; at a slower pace, but it's happening. Before it was the iPhone 2G; now it's iPhone 2G, 3G, 3GS, iPad, soon the new iPhone 4G... soon there will be way too many differences in resolution, screen size, CPU and OS too. Sales per-device is irrelevant, IMO. If I sell 100 for 10 devices, it's better than selling 90 for 3 devices. It's not like I have to add one IF() condition for each new model in my code; merely that I have to plan for slower CPUs and different screen sizes and resolutions, and when I do so, it's for a whole group of similar devices.

buster 16y ago

"Soon the big majority of cell phones will be what we usually call smartphones." My guess here is, that this will be a major winning point for Android, as i think that the next-gen low cost smartphones (presumably the ones that will most likely be bought by current featurephone owners) will be Android ones. Vodafone in germany will sell an Android phone for 130€ (prepaid, 1€ with contract) soon, for example. Even more so, this may be a huge advantage in the emerging markets like china and india.

ergo98 16y ago

>No news here. Is this like "the seven stages of grief" or something? Yeah, there is big news here, denial-be-damned. A few short months ago we were all told that there was just so much confusion in Android-land. So many choices and so many versions it was a major turn off for consumers. Instead the one-sized-fits-all iPhone model was the winner (and it was). Now it's "duh...of course Android moves ahead" as if that's the new reality. >Everyone and their mothers knows that in a month Apple will introduce a new one The Nexus 2 will be out in a very short while. The Samsung Galaxy S will be out with 3x the GPU power. The Evo 4G of course. And on, and on, and on. >The point is that if you look at the single device, no-one is even closed to Apple's number. It was never about a single device. It has never been a single device.