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I think self-driving cars have incredible potential, but the media hype is just too strong around this technology. People are used to startups going from 0 to
by jayjay71 10y ago
I think self-driving cars have incredible potential, but the media hype is just too strong around this technology. People are used to startups going from 0 to unicorn in 5+ years, because they are often based on simple technologies and business models centered around exponential growth. AirBnB, Uber, twitch, and many more are all technology companies that obviously had many challenges, but they did not depend on a technological breakthrough in order to get where they are today.
There is a gap between Level 2 and Level 4 (arguably Level 5 with the new standards, but I'm going to assume Level 4 means what most people would call a true self-driving car) autonomy which is dangerous, because it lulls humans into a false sense of safety. And then when the car can no longer drive itself, the user is expected to take over with a delayed reaction time and little to no context in what could be a very dangerous situation. It is a deadly valley. There are numerous studies on this topic from the aviation industry, and drivers don't have nearly as much training as pilots.
I think real self-driving cars are awesome, and the first time I sat in one years ago when I worked on it as a PhD student was truly an incredible experience. But the hype around the technology is too much, and when investors push for a product in a few years when it's not ready at best companies will fail and at worst people will die. Misinforming the public on this is a very serious problem which nobody seems to care about, even after at least 1 death which is still under investigation.
I am all for working on this technology and seeing incremental improvements over the years. But I am frustrated with the media's portrayal of how it's just around the corner (I am frustrated with the media in general), and I believe the overpromise of the technology is largely responsible for the death of the Tesla owner in Florida last year (and there are other accidents that are reported in China which get much less coverage).
People will say self-driving cars save lives and are safer. In theory, yes - but the problem is we aren't there yet. There just isn't enough data to make that claim. When Tesla said it was safer, they ignored the fact that all of their driving was on highways (which are statistically safer) and that their owners are more affluent and older (at least I assume the average Tesla owner is 25+). The data isn't available when you break down these demographics, but I suspect if it were that 1 death would actually make autopilot deadlier than manual driving. It's a moot point though - anybody trying to extrapolate meaningful conclusions from a single data point is making a ridiculous claim.
- stale2002 10y agoYou are underestimating how game changing even "incomplete" self driving features will be. Autobraking for accidents only, is a "self driving" feature that you can buy right NOW on most 2017 cars. Auto braking alone could save 10s of thousands of lives every year, and it is absolutely production ready.
- brg 10y agoThis can't be understated. The potential of self-driving cars is so vastly immense, it is hard to see at what level it will stop having a positive impact on people. And this potential reaches across every level of autonomy. Its just an opinion, but I believe the market demand for this technology will ensure success of the endeavor (except possibly at the margins). As a thought experiment, just imagine how every daily activity is improved by self driving cars; not just relaxing while driving to work, but automatic transportation of children to school, removal of the annoying of finding a parking spot at a grocery store. Social activities are made much more convenient; having drinks with a friend, picking up parents from the airport, lending your car to the neighbor. And there is the potential of a world in which car ownership is itself redundant, and we are only speaking about lag time and comfort for transportation.
- jayjay71 10y agoAutobraking is a great technology that has been around for a few years (BMW was selling it in 2013), but nobody touted it as a self-driving feature. My point isn't that working on this technology is bad, my point is people expect it to do more than it can.
- stale2002 10y agoThat doesn't mean it isn't a self driving feature.... Automated accident prevention sounds awfully related to self driving. The technology has been around, but it isn't deployed to the majority of cars yet. What I am saying is that self driving technology doesn't have to be perfect for it to change the world. It doesn't matter if we are a ways away from getting to the "nobody owns a car, and everyone just uses self driving Ubers" future. Because the current, shit accident prevention technology can ALREADY change the world, even if it is "just" by cutting accidents in half and saving "only" 40,000 lives every year.