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Is the quote missing the part where they say that Bernhard was not a swan? Using their flawed logic, since Lily and Greg are both swans, then Bernhard must be
by qbrass 10y ago
Is the quote missing the part where they say that Bernhard was not a swan?
Using their flawed logic, since Lily and Greg are both swans, then Bernhard must be a swan, so Greg could be white or green.
You're right about the answer not being correct, and not for the reason I gave. The test was a butchered version of the black swan problem. It shows that you can't generalize given prior examples. Even if you've seen a million swans, and they were all white, you haven't proven that all swans are white.
I haven't seen the show, so I don't know if they were intentionally going for that, or they screwed it up and honestly thought it was a proper example of inductive reasoning.