He's a Bayesian, and his priors are predicated on the belief that the lack of apparent intelligent life in the universe is attributable to self-annihilation. I

He's a Bayesian, and his priors are predicated on the belief that the lack of apparent intelligent life in the universe is attributable to self-annihilation. In all seriousness, calculating a probability of death from nuclear calamity isn't going to be possible without a great number of caveats and assumptions. It isn't like a meteor strike, because we at least have some record of that stretching back a long time. It's also not like meteor strikes because I believe the disaster generating process (people with buttons wired to faulty / hackable control systems) to be a giant mess of scary.