Did you read the entire article? He makes a point to discuss expectation values as the metric to judge the seriousness of addressing a nuclear event, not the st

Did you read the entire article? He makes a point to discuss expectation values as the metric to judge the seriousness of addressing a nuclear event, not the statistical probability value > Perry wishes more people were familiar with the concept of “expected value.” That is a statistical way of understanding events of very large magnitude that have a low probability. The large magnitude event could be something good, like winning a lottery ticket. Or it could be something bad, like a nuclear bomb exploding. Because the odds of winning the lottery are so low, the rational thing is to save your money and not buy the ticket. As for a nuclear explosion, by Perry’s lights, the consequences are so grave that the rational thing would be for people in the United States and everywhere to be in a state of peak alarm about their vulnerability, and for political debate to be dominated by discussion of how to reduce the risk.