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The $1.05B revenue for 2017 figure is completely made up. But even if you assume it's real, the $25B valuation still makes zero sense. 25 times the annual reve
by imaginenore 10y ago
The $1.05B revenue for 2017 figure is completely made up.
But even if you assume it's real, the $25B valuation still makes zero sense. 25 times the annual revenue, not the profit.
- GordonS 10y agoEven more so when you consider the chances of Snapchat still being a thing in 3 years, let alone 25
- argonaut 10y agoThree years ago, in college Snapchat was hugely popular. Three years later, today, it is still hugely popular. Of course, if you only heard about it on HN/tech sites, you might think Snapchat is a recently popular phenomenon.
- kedean 10y agoYeah, it's only been getting more and more popular as people realize it actually fills a real communications niche, and isn't just for sending dirty pictures.
- samfisher83 10y agoPeople made the same argument when FB turned down Yahoo 2billion dollar bid. This kind of stuff is too hard to predict. It is a very risky play, but its all based on projected growth and what you feel it is.
- jpatokal 10y agoNot sure why the above is getting downvoted, since the revenue number in the article is literally made up! ...it is possible to crank out a rudimentary model given reasonable assumptions. We were surprised that no one seems to have done this yet and so cranked one out just to see what happens. ... we arrived at the $1bn revenue target for 2016 Here's the spreadsheet they used: https://sentieo.com/wp-content/uploads/snap-model-1.xlsx https://sentieo.com/wp-content/uploads/snap-model-1.xlsx Google Docs copy for your convenience: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HGmor-k953dlAUvMJUvgHSnIQhaaU9_0U-hFAGb8j4o/edit?usp=sharing https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HGmor-k953dlAUvMJUvg... Basically, plug random numbers into the blue figures and watch the rest dance around.