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"I have always thought I had a good handle on the market. Until recently." Guess what? That just means that the market has gotten more efficient so that you ca
by xxzz 16y ago
"I have always thought I had a good handle on the market. Until recently."
Guess what? That just means that the market has gotten more efficient so that you can't arbitrage it anymore. If you can't make money, that your problem. If the quants made the market so irrational then why aren't you profitable arbitraging it?
All technologies improve the average case at the expense of making the worst case worse. Cars versus walking for example. Average case: get to where you are going faster, worst case: horrible accident. The question is not whether financial innovation introduces systemic risk but whether the benefits out-weigh the costs. The consensus amongst academic is that yes, this is the case.
- cakesy 16y agoHe wasn't doing arbitrage. He was investing in companies in that he thought were going up in stock price. Clearly he was researching different companies, and finding ones that he thought would do well in the future, but most people hadn't noticed yet. Then he would buy into them, and wait for them to hit it big, then cash out. This is not arbitrage, this is straight out investing.