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Doubtful. This is literally a revolutionary technology like the internet. The only hash coin that has proven stable over the long term. Why won't it just keep

Doubtful. This is literally a revolutionary technology like the internet. The only hash coin that has proven stable over the long term. Why won't it just keep rising?

gchokov 10y ago
Don't mistake blockchain with bitcoin. Please, don't.
- corobo 10y ago
  Care to explain the difference? It's much more useful in the long term to educate rather than criticise.
- jerguismi 10y ago
  Yeah, bitcoin has potential, while these "blockchain enthusiasts" are mostly hand wavers.
- dwaltrip 10y ago
  The blockchain, as we know it today, would not exist in any meaningful sense without tokens of value incentiving people to secure it (the miners). If you believe otherwise, you will need to demonstrate what that means and how it works. The two are currently inseparably intertwined.
formula1 10y ago
Because theres no use for it besides activity people want to do anonymously (often illegal) or avoidance of state economies (like venezuala). Outside of that, its mostly speculation and hoarding.
mikeash 10y ago
It hasn't just kept going the previous n times it spiked, why would this time be different?
zsw 10y ago
I agree that Bitcoin and its underlying technologies are completely revolutionary, and that Bitcoin has proven to be the most stable implementation of these technologies over time. And I personally think that Bitcoin is worth many times more than what it is trading at now. However, the price and trading of Bitcoin over the past few weeks have been driven by hype and speculation, not by the unique value that the technology brings. When prices increase because of speculation, they will likely re-correct. I expect the price to drop again after the hype cools off.
amalcon 10y ago
> This is literally a revolutionary technology like the internet. You can't say things like this without supporting them and expect to be taken seriously. Blockchains look to me like a brilliant approach to a real problem, but the approach is still not good enough to actually solve that problem. Also, most Bitcoin enthusiasts seem to misidentify the problem that it approaches.
- dwaltrip 10y ago
  You don't think it is an impressively innovative way of securing, recording, and transferring value? There are major issues, volatility not being the least. And I'll be the first to admit I doubt many of its proponents more ambitious claims. However, on a basic level, its capability to reliably store and transfer value has only grown and become stronger in the past 8 years. If it's a bubble, it's certainly an incredibly long running, transparent bubble. There isn't hidden, crucial information, compared to assets like Madoff's fund and housing that were recent long-running "bubbles" (of a certain sort). In those cases, the hidden information becoming public would have ended those bubbles sooner.
  - amalcon 10y ago
    It is an impressively innovative way of recording value (transferring and securing, not as much, but that's a discussion for another time). Plenty of things are impressive without actually solving the problems they try to solve, though. 1990s speech recognition software was impressive, but not actually suitable for its intended purpose. > However, on a basic level, its capability to reliably store and transfer value has only grown and become stronger in the past 8 years. It's been pretty terrible at storing value over the past 8 years, because of the volatility (though it's been pretty good as a speculative asset). Its capacity to transfer value has grown, but that's just because the ecosystem surrounding bitcoin has grown -- e.g. something like M-Pesa grew much more over the same time frame, just because more people accept it. This has nothing to do with the technology.
    - dwaltrip 10y ago
      People use various technologies for various reasons, many having to do with specific characteristics of the technology itself. Accidental reasons do exist, but the technical deficiencies must be small enough to not overshadow the favorable accidental reasons. In other words, it has to be good enough, given the context, or it won't happen. So I don't think it's fair to dismiss adoption as meaningless. I agree it is difficult to determine how well Bitcoin has "stored value" over the past 8 years. But I don't think speculation should be casually dismissed, as continued speculation rarely happens for many years without reasonable fundamentals supporting the space. Short term bubbles can possibly be more noise/mob-mentality than meaningful signal. However, many bubbles over time, coupled with a strong underlying trend, is definitely a powerful signal that something interesting is happening. Additionally, the volatility is decreasing year over year, which is another point in favor of bitcoin as a value storage mechanism. I think one big problem in discussing bitcoin is people get hung up on different things that are supposedly the "purpose" of bitcoin, and then argue in circles about that. There are definitely some questionable ideologies in the bitcoin space. As no single group is in charge of bitcoin, I'd personally would rather not assume any specific predetermined purpose, and just look at how the system is functioning and what the fundamental characteristics and dynamics seem to be.

Doubtful. This is literally a revolutionary technology like the internet. The only hash coin that has proven stable over the long term. Why won't it just keep rising?

gchokov 10y ago

Don't mistake blockchain with bitcoin. Please, don't.

corobo 10y ago
Care to explain the difference? It's much more useful in the long term to educate rather than criticise.
jerguismi 10y ago
Yeah, bitcoin has potential, while these "blockchain enthusiasts" are mostly hand wavers.
dwaltrip 10y ago
The blockchain, as we know it today, would not exist in any meaningful sense without tokens of value incentiving people to secure it (the miners). If you believe otherwise, you will need to demonstrate what that means and how it works. The two are currently inseparably intertwined.

formula1 10y ago

Because theres no use for it besides activity people want to do anonymously (often illegal) or avoidance of state economies (like venezuala). Outside of that, its mostly speculation and hoarding.

mikeash 10y ago

It hasn't just kept going the previous n times it spiked, why would this time be different?

zsw 10y ago

I agree that Bitcoin and its underlying technologies are completely revolutionary, and that Bitcoin has proven to be the most stable implementation of these technologies over time. And I personally think that Bitcoin is worth many times more than what it is trading at now. However, the price and trading of Bitcoin over the past few weeks have been driven by hype and speculation, not by the unique value that the technology brings. When prices increase because of speculation, they will likely re-correct. I expect the price to drop again after the hype cools off.

amalcon 10y ago

> This is literally a revolutionary technology like the internet. You can't say things like this without supporting them and expect to be taken seriously. Blockchains look to me like a brilliant approach to a real problem, but the approach is still not good enough to actually solve that problem. Also, most Bitcoin enthusiasts seem to misidentify the problem that it approaches.

dwaltrip 10y ago
You don't think it is an impressively innovative way of securing, recording, and transferring value? There are major issues, volatility not being the least. And I'll be the first to admit I doubt many of its proponents more ambitious claims. However, on a basic level, its capability to reliably store and transfer value has only grown and become stronger in the past 8 years. If it's a bubble, it's certainly an incredibly long running, transparent bubble. There isn't hidden, crucial information, compared to assets like Madoff's fund and housing that were recent long-running "bubbles" (of a certain sort). In those cases, the hidden information becoming public would have ended those bubbles sooner.
- amalcon 10y ago
  It is an impressively innovative way of recording value (transferring and securing, not as much, but that's a discussion for another time). Plenty of things are impressive without actually solving the problems they try to solve, though. 1990s speech recognition software was impressive, but not actually suitable for its intended purpose. > However, on a basic level, its capability to reliably store and transfer value has only grown and become stronger in the past 8 years. It's been pretty terrible at storing value over the past 8 years, because of the volatility (though it's been pretty good as a speculative asset). Its capacity to transfer value has grown, but that's just because the ecosystem surrounding bitcoin has grown -- e.g. something like M-Pesa grew much more over the same time frame, just because more people accept it. This has nothing to do with the technology.
  - dwaltrip 10y ago
    People use various technologies for various reasons, many having to do with specific characteristics of the technology itself. Accidental reasons do exist, but the technical deficiencies must be small enough to not overshadow the favorable accidental reasons. In other words, it has to be good enough, given the context, or it won't happen. So I don't think it's fair to dismiss adoption as meaningless. I agree it is difficult to determine how well Bitcoin has "stored value" over the past 8 years. But I don't think speculation should be casually dismissed, as continued speculation rarely happens for many years without reasonable fundamentals supporting the space. Short term bubbles can possibly be more noise/mob-mentality than meaningful signal. However, many bubbles over time, coupled with a strong underlying trend, is definitely a powerful signal that something interesting is happening. Additionally, the volatility is decreasing year over year, which is another point in favor of bitcoin as a value storage mechanism. I think one big problem in discussing bitcoin is people get hung up on different things that are supposedly the "purpose" of bitcoin, and then argue in circles about that. There are definitely some questionable ideologies in the bitcoin space. As no single group is in charge of bitcoin, I'd personally would rather not assume any specific predetermined purpose, and just look at how the system is functioning and what the fundamental characteristics and dynamics seem to be.