7 ms·

The baloon will pop out soon. It's clearly a balloon - people using it to get money out of China. At some point, what goes in, will go out. Money Flow.

by gchokov 10y ago

pat2man 10y ago
There will be another country where this happens. The fact that Bitcoin works well in this situation is further proof that it is a decent currency for international trade.
- technotony 10y ago
  New York times suggests this boom is caused by India and Venezuela, so yes other countries are picking up on this: http://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/03/business/dealbook/bitcoin-price-soars-fueled-by-speculation-and-global-currency-turmoil.html?_r=0 http://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/03/business/dealbook/bitcoin-...
  - pg314 10y ago
    And speculation, as it says in the headline of that NYT article. The volume of bitcoins bought with bolivars (Venezuela's currency) is inherently limited: you would only want to sell bitcoins in exchange for bolivars if you could spend the bolivars immediately. That basically limits the sellers to people already having bitcoin and living in Bolivia.
- gchokov 10y ago
  These are all valid comments.
nickthemagicman 10y ago
Doubtful. This is literally a revolutionary technology like the internet. The only hash coin that has proven stable over the long term. Why won't it just keep rising?
- gchokov 10y ago
  Don't mistake blockchain with bitcoin. Please, don't.
  - corobo 10y ago
    Care to explain the difference? It's much more useful in the long term to educate rather than criticise.
  - jerguismi 10y ago
    Yeah, bitcoin has potential, while these "blockchain enthusiasts" are mostly hand wavers.
  - dwaltrip 10y ago
    The blockchain, as we know it today, would not exist in any meaningful sense without tokens of value incentiving people to secure it (the miners). If you believe otherwise, you will need to demonstrate what that means and how it works. The two are currently inseparably intertwined.
- formula1 10y ago
  Because theres no use for it besides activity people want to do anonymously (often illegal) or avoidance of state economies (like venezuala). Outside of that, its mostly speculation and hoarding.
- mikeash 10y ago
  It hasn't just kept going the previous n times it spiked, why would this time be different?
- zsw 10y ago
  I agree that Bitcoin and its underlying technologies are completely revolutionary, and that Bitcoin has proven to be the most stable implementation of these technologies over time. And I personally think that Bitcoin is worth many times more than what it is trading at now. However, the price and trading of Bitcoin over the past few weeks have been driven by hype and speculation, not by the unique value that the technology brings. When prices increase because of speculation, they will likely re-correct. I expect the price to drop again after the hype cools off.
xyzzy4 10y ago
I doubt it. You don't think Bitcoin has a fair market cap at around $10-20 billion? Seems like a reasonable range to me, especially since gold is worth way over $1 trillion. The gold bubble should pop way before Bitcoin does.
- thfuran 10y ago
  Gold actually physically exists and, aside from more practical uses, has been prized for decoration and jewelry for thousands of years. I don't really see that as a particularly good comparison.
  - deleted 10y ago
    [deleted]
  - dwaltrip 10y ago
    The large majority of gold is held for purely monetary or investment reasons. Decorative and industrial usage contributes a minority share to the value of gold.
- pyrophane 10y ago
  Yea, but if I have a lot of gold I don't have to worry that another, slightly different version of the metal is going to show up tomorrow and take away all of the value of my gold. With Bitcoin however, assuming I believe that unregulated digital currencies are valuable, I'm still left with the question 'why is this one particularly valuable?' The answers typically given include market adoption, support from companies, current value, and name recognition. These things have value, but none of them are intrinsic to bitcoin, and are all subject to rapid change. For that reason, I don't consider bitcoin to be in any way 'stable,' especially since most of its value is driven by speculative investment rather than actual utility.
- mmanfrin 10y ago
  The gold bubble should pop >waits patiently for 7000 years
elastic_church 10y ago
historically, sometime after the 1,000% gains over previous all-time highs. This usually comes after an exchange experiences a loss of service. I would be curious to see what drama unfolds this time, since the exchanges are more numerous and seemingly more robust at this point in time.
- gchokov 10y ago
  Or big liquidation event. It's now a mainstream trading currency, a lot of retail dudes going just become it goes up. Let's see what happens :) edit: not pair, but currency.
  - elastic_church 10y ago
    At least it is easy to short this time, but I hate the possibility of margin calls in periods of high volatility so I'm still aggravated that there are no standardized options contracts ready for this rally, since they have better profit potential and no margin calls when the price moves against you.
kordless 10y ago
Bitcoin's intrinsic value is related to its ability to store a moderate amount of "debt" related data in an immutable way. As long as this "feature" continues to work well in our current economic environment, people/entities will continue using it. Saying it's going to the moon, or pop, is simply a result of a biased argument against the technology and neglects the real value in being able to say this transaction is related to these events created by human causality.
- danbruc 10y ago
  Bitcoin's intrinsic value is related to its ability to store a moderate amount of "debt" related data in an immutable way. What is this supposed to mean? It sounds a bit like carving IOUs in stone but that is probably not what you were hinting at.
  - kordless 10y ago
    > carving IOUs in stone I would consider Rai Stones as a good analagy, given they also stored suffering in a trustworthy way: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rai_stones https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rai_stones. When I say "suffering" I'm referring to the amount of causality associated with a given amount of value stored, not the human emotion attached to it.
  - warbiscuit 10y ago
    IOUs that can't be repudiated, payments that can be cryptographically proven, payments that can have conditional logic attached (e.g. third party escrow, without third party having access to the money) -- and all without the need of a centralized authority or PKI system. Those are the real values of the bitcoin system. Mind you, there are a few downsides too - potential to create transactional race conditions if you control enough of the system; difficulty changing into other currencies; architectural decisions yet to be ironed out about how to scale to a mass audience. Lack of ability to reverse a transaction could also be seen as a negative in certain lights -- no "visa, cancel this charge, they scammed me".
- dr_win 10y ago
  On lower level, Bitcoin's intrinsic value is the right/ability to write a new row into an immutable append-only decentralised censorship-proof spreadsheet table. It is valuable not only in economic context to create a border-less cash-like virtual commodity. It could be used for proof of publication or proof of existence and in many other ways.

The baloon will pop out soon. It's clearly a balloon - people using it to get money out of China. At some point, what goes in, will go out. Money Flow.

by gchokov 10y ago

The baloon will pop out soon. It's clearly a balloon - people using it to get money out of China. At some point, what goes in, will go out. Money Flow.

pat2man 10y ago

There will be another country where this happens. The fact that Bitcoin works well in this situation is further proof that it is a decent currency for international trade.

technotony 10y ago
New York times suggests this boom is caused by India and Venezuela, so yes other countries are picking up on this: http://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/03/business/dealbook/bitcoin-price-soars-fueled-by-speculation-and-global-currency-turmoil.html?_r=0 http://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/03/business/dealbook/bitcoin-...
- pg314 10y ago
  And speculation, as it says in the headline of that NYT article. The volume of bitcoins bought with bolivars (Venezuela's currency) is inherently limited: you would only want to sell bitcoins in exchange for bolivars if you could spend the bolivars immediately. That basically limits the sellers to people already having bitcoin and living in Bolivia.
gchokov 10y ago
These are all valid comments.

nickthemagicman 10y ago

Doubtful. This is literally a revolutionary technology like the internet. The only hash coin that has proven stable over the long term. Why won't it just keep rising?

gchokov 10y ago
Don't mistake blockchain with bitcoin. Please, don't.
- corobo 10y ago
  Care to explain the difference? It's much more useful in the long term to educate rather than criticise.
- jerguismi 10y ago
  Yeah, bitcoin has potential, while these "blockchain enthusiasts" are mostly hand wavers.
- dwaltrip 10y ago
  The blockchain, as we know it today, would not exist in any meaningful sense without tokens of value incentiving people to secure it (the miners). If you believe otherwise, you will need to demonstrate what that means and how it works. The two are currently inseparably intertwined.
formula1 10y ago
Because theres no use for it besides activity people want to do anonymously (often illegal) or avoidance of state economies (like venezuala). Outside of that, its mostly speculation and hoarding.
mikeash 10y ago
It hasn't just kept going the previous n times it spiked, why would this time be different?
zsw 10y ago
I agree that Bitcoin and its underlying technologies are completely revolutionary, and that Bitcoin has proven to be the most stable implementation of these technologies over time. And I personally think that Bitcoin is worth many times more than what it is trading at now. However, the price and trading of Bitcoin over the past few weeks have been driven by hype and speculation, not by the unique value that the technology brings. When prices increase because of speculation, they will likely re-correct. I expect the price to drop again after the hype cools off.

xyzzy4 10y ago

I doubt it. You don't think Bitcoin has a fair market cap at around $10-20 billion? Seems like a reasonable range to me, especially since gold is worth way over $1 trillion. The gold bubble should pop way before Bitcoin does.

thfuran 10y ago
Gold actually physically exists and, aside from more practical uses, has been prized for decoration and jewelry for thousands of years. I don't really see that as a particularly good comparison.
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]
- dwaltrip 10y ago
  The large majority of gold is held for purely monetary or investment reasons. Decorative and industrial usage contributes a minority share to the value of gold.
pyrophane 10y ago
Yea, but if I have a lot of gold I don't have to worry that another, slightly different version of the metal is going to show up tomorrow and take away all of the value of my gold. With Bitcoin however, assuming I believe that unregulated digital currencies are valuable, I'm still left with the question 'why is this one particularly valuable?' The answers typically given include market adoption, support from companies, current value, and name recognition. These things have value, but none of them are intrinsic to bitcoin, and are all subject to rapid change. For that reason, I don't consider bitcoin to be in any way 'stable,' especially since most of its value is driven by speculative investment rather than actual utility.
mmanfrin 10y ago
The gold bubble should pop >waits patiently for 7000 years

elastic_church 10y ago

historically, sometime after the 1,000% gains over previous all-time highs. This usually comes after an exchange experiences a loss of service. I would be curious to see what drama unfolds this time, since the exchanges are more numerous and seemingly more robust at this point in time.

gchokov 10y ago
Or big liquidation event. It's now a mainstream trading currency, a lot of retail dudes going just become it goes up. Let's see what happens :) edit: not pair, but currency.
- elastic_church 10y ago
  At least it is easy to short this time, but I hate the possibility of margin calls in periods of high volatility so I'm still aggravated that there are no standardized options contracts ready for this rally, since they have better profit potential and no margin calls when the price moves against you.

kordless 10y ago

Bitcoin's intrinsic value is related to its ability to store a moderate amount of "debt" related data in an immutable way. As long as this "feature" continues to work well in our current economic environment, people/entities will continue using it. Saying it's going to the moon, or pop, is simply a result of a biased argument against the technology and neglects the real value in being able to say this transaction is related to these events created by human causality.

danbruc 10y ago
Bitcoin's intrinsic value is related to its ability to store a moderate amount of "debt" related data in an immutable way. What is this supposed to mean? It sounds a bit like carving IOUs in stone but that is probably not what you were hinting at.
- kordless 10y ago
  > carving IOUs in stone I would consider Rai Stones as a good analagy, given they also stored suffering in a trustworthy way: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rai_stones https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rai_stones. When I say "suffering" I'm referring to the amount of causality associated with a given amount of value stored, not the human emotion attached to it.
- warbiscuit 10y ago
  IOUs that can't be repudiated, payments that can be cryptographically proven, payments that can have conditional logic attached (e.g. third party escrow, without third party having access to the money) -- and all without the need of a centralized authority or PKI system. Those are the real values of the bitcoin system. Mind you, there are a few downsides too - potential to create transactional race conditions if you control enough of the system; difficulty changing into other currencies; architectural decisions yet to be ironed out about how to scale to a mass audience. Lack of ability to reverse a transaction could also be seen as a negative in certain lights -- no "visa, cancel this charge, they scammed me".
dr_win 10y ago
On lower level, Bitcoin's intrinsic value is the right/ability to write a new row into an immutable append-only decentralised censorship-proof spreadsheet table. It is valuable not only in economic context to create a border-less cash-like virtual commodity. It could be used for proof of publication or proof of existence and in many other ways.