19 ms·

Bitcoin at an all-time high

58 points by ca98am79 10y ago

danbruc 10y ago
At least close to it, still a few Dollars to go, the all-time high is $1,216.73 from 2013-11-17 on the Mt. Gox. [1] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_bitcoin#Prices_and_value_history https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_bitcoin#Prices_and_...
- TheDong 10y ago
  Frankly that value shouldn't count. At that time, you could not get any money, USD or BTC, out of the exchange. Those were not USD, those were GOXUSD because they could not be transacted with anywhere but the exchange nor transferred. Same for the BTC there, they were GBTC, not real BTC.
  - xyzzy4 10y ago
    That's not true. I withdrew some Bitcoin out of the exchange at that time. It was a month or so later when it was impossible to withdraw any funds.
droopyEyelids 10y ago
The rumors I've heard tie this to activity spurred by changes in yuan valuation. Does anyone know of a site that visualizes information that could add information to that hypothesis? I'm thinking something like trading volumes per geographical area. I'm also curious what role bitcoin could play in mitigating currency risk. Are people using it to buy foreign currencies and keep them in secret bank accounts? Are they attempting to use Bitcoin as a store of value?
- curiousgal 10y ago
  >trading volumes per geographical area. https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/#markets https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/#markets Sort by volume. It's not as accurate as you requested but it's close enough.
- xyzzy4 10y ago
  Bitcoin is very useful for three things, which are a store of value similar to gold (although it is more volatile), money remittance to other countries, and illegal or anonymous activities. I don't know how many people are using it for each, though. Also as a side note it's typically very difficult to make bank accounts in other countries if you are not a resident.
  - automatwon 10y ago
    I worked in data science at a tech startup that focused on remittance ($1 billion ARR). I was also offered a position at an early stage bitcoin startup in Vietnam, one of the top 'send countries' for remittance from the U.S. This is the first and primary Bitcoin service provider in Vietnam. Bitcoin is not ideal for remittance in practice. Speed: If you use your own wallet, waiting for the blockchain to propagate might actually be slower than currency through a remittance company. I don't know what the clearing process is for Bitcoin wallets SaaS, but Bitcoin is equal to if not slower than normal remittance tech startups. After all, speed is one of the factors these remittance startups are tackling to disrupt Western Union. Rate: I can't speak universally, but doing remittance in or out of Vietnam with Bitcoin was too high last year. ~5% if we go USD -> BTC -> VND. ~10% in the reverse. These rates are indicative of the local currency being worthless. I also remember transferring Bitcoin internally in the U.S. last year through SaaS would eat out half a percentage. Foreign workers who remit to their loved ones are price sensitive. That leaves Bitcoin as remittance viable to people who aren't price sensitive, at the asset of more anonymity. IMO, dirty money is not price sensitive. 10% fee to launder money is cheap. If you're already going down this road though, Vietnam mom and pop shops offer practically free remittance. They are unlikely to be regulated. And again, local Vietnam currency is useless. It's not stable or a good store of value. The government sets artificial exchange rates. People in Vietnam desperately want to exchange their money for USD, and are willing to pay a premium, which is still better than the governments rate, and so the remittance shop is able to offer people sending USD to Vietnam a free service. A Bitcoin provider will have to exchange to and from the local currency if it's to be used for remittance. In the case of Vietnam, the exchange must exchange Bitcoin for the more worthless local currency, and hence charge the higher exchange rate. The provider in Vietnam has an underlying market exchange, actually, where there is no liquidity because people with Bitcoin expect a huge premium to exchange it for local currency. I think Vietnam's situation can be generalized to other remittance countries where the local currency is undesired, and the government has locked down people exchanging it for USD.
- the_rosentotter 10y ago
  The chart in this article (Washington Post two days ago) shows the correlation between bitcoin price and yuan devaluation (scroll to the middle of the article): https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/01/03/why-bitcoin-just-had-an-amazing-year/?utm_term=.7c83f52f2679 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/01/03/why-b... (Not a very strong correlation, in my opinion. Note the short arbitrary time period chosen.)
- DesiLurker 10y ago
  perhaps also something to do with indian demonetization of large currency bills.
- nullc 10y ago
  > I'm thinking something like trading volumes per geographical area. There are a number of exchanges in China with zero cost trades, which distorts volume figures.
- momentmaker 10y ago
  This site tracks live where in the world people are buying Bitcoins from. http://fiatleak.com/ http://fiatleak.com/ Most of the volumes do come from China.
  - dwaltrip 10y ago
    You have to be careful. Most people believe the volume numbers reported by Chinese exchanges are heavily inflated. Edit: I was incorrect. See below, it seems this doesn't apply for this website as they aren't using volume data from exchanges.
    - facepalm 10y ago
      I would expect the data to be from the blockchain and GeoIP of node from which the transaction originated? Of course still not 100% reliable, as theoretically people could use any node, but still interesting.
      - dwaltrip 10y ago
        Oh, hmm, that makes sense. It's looking at IPs of actual transactions, not off-chain trading volumes. Thanks for clarifying, I'll update my comment.
the_rosentotter 10y ago
Go bitcoin! An alternative monetary system can only be a very good thing, and bitcoin is one of a very short list of contenders.
- pg314 10y ago
  > can only be a very good thing, No. It has enabled the rise of ransomware.
  - oleganza 10y ago
    So did computers and tcp/ip. Should we roll them back too?
    - pg314 10y ago
      No, that doesn't follow from my statement. I was pointing out why 'can only be a very good thing' might be wrong. If bitcoin's advantages are enough to offset its drawbacks (of which enabling ransomware is one), that is a good thing. That is not a given, though.
bdcravens 10y ago
Not sure where they're getting that data; Bitstamp's all time high was 1163 which hasn't been broken yet (likely will today) http://bitcoinity.org/markets/bitstamp/USD http://bitcoinity.org/markets/bitstamp/USD
- curiousgal 10y ago
  Many Exchanges have prices higher than that. https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/#markets https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/#markets
  - bdcravens 10y ago
    True, but I think you want to limit yourself to BTC/USD pairs, and to exchanges that were trading at the last ATH.
Marazan 10y ago
While not as strong as previous years the bitcoin price-to-GoogleSearchPopularity correlation is still strong. For previous spikes price leads the search popularity on the upswing but search popularity leads price on the downslope.
gchokov 10y ago
The baloon will pop out soon. It's clearly a balloon - people using it to get money out of China. At some point, what goes in, will go out. Money Flow.
- pat2man 10y ago
  There will be another country where this happens. The fact that Bitcoin works well in this situation is further proof that it is a decent currency for international trade.
  - technotony 10y ago
    New York times suggests this boom is caused by India and Venezuela, so yes other countries are picking up on this: http://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/03/business/dealbook/bitcoin-price-soars-fueled-by-speculation-and-global-currency-turmoil.html?_r=0 http://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/03/business/dealbook/bitcoin-...
    - pg314 10y ago
      And speculation, as it says in the headline of that NYT article. The volume of bitcoins bought with bolivars (Venezuela's currency) is inherently limited: you would only want to sell bitcoins in exchange for bolivars if you could spend the bolivars immediately. That basically limits the sellers to people already having bitcoin and living in Bolivia.
  - gchokov 10y ago
    These are all valid comments.
- nickthemagicman 10y ago
  Doubtful. This is literally a revolutionary technology like the internet. The only hash coin that has proven stable over the long term. Why won't it just keep rising?
  - gchokov 10y ago
nchuhoai 10y ago
Does anyone know how to buy put options on Bitcoin? Or any other limited loss way of shorting bitcoin?
- xyzzy4 10y ago
  You can borrow Bitcoin from a friend, sell the Bitcoin on an exchange, and then buy your friend the same amount of Bitcoin a month from now.
  - bboreham 10y ago
    That's a future, not an option. The potential loss is unlimited.
    - jerguismi 10y ago
      Potential loss = unlimited amount of money + friendship
- pat2man 10y ago
  A few options mentioned here: http://cryptorials.io/how-to-short-bitcoin-5-ways-to-profit-from-a-falling-btc-price/ http://cryptorials.io/how-to-short-bitcoin-5-ways-to-profit-...
- vessenes 10y ago
  If you are willing to take some counterparty risk (and who isn't, amiright?) bitfinex has plenty of leverage and options-type trading. Chinese exchanges also offer high leverage to many customers if you really like the idea of gambling.
- jboggan 10y ago
  Years ago I built an options and futures trading platform for Bitcoin but we were strangled by regulatory compliance and I shut it down. There are always a few around but the problem with the market is that no major holder of Bitcoin wants to hedge their position in the slightest. It's such a highly volatile asset in and of itself.
popol12 10y ago
Don't think about bitcoin as a western individual. Think of it like you were in a poor/developping country, where 95% of the population doesn't have a bank account. Well, bitcoin gives an international bank account to anyone. With the growth of internet in these areas, Bitcoin will grow.
- watty 10y ago
  Right, but what % of those people in poor/developing countries have the internet access and knowledge to securely manage a Bitcoin attack?
  - andrewd18 10y ago
    Given how regularly Western Bitcoin exchanges are hacked, I'm not convinced anyone has the knowledge to securely manage a Bitcoin attack.
  - facepalm 10y ago
    You mean an attack on their phone to steal the coins from their wallet?
- drcode 10y ago
  The problem right is that $0.25 transaction fees are now common- Not exactly ideal for a developing country (though the current price spike is mostly unexplained, so it's totally possible it is succeeding for some developing country use cases, despite the high fees)
  - elastic_church 10y ago
    Its more like 25 cents to exit one economy for an international one denominated in bitcoin.
- mamcx 10y ago
  Except when is rule out of the law, as in Colombia where is prohibited (under the premise is only used by scammers): http://www.eltiempo.com/tecnosfera/novedades-tecnologia/bitcoin-en-colombia/16780487 http://www.eltiempo.com/tecnosfera/novedades-tecnologia/bitc...
bagosm 10y ago
Does this article take into account bitcoins that are in wallets lost forever?
jason_slack 10y ago
Is BitCoin mining still mostly done by huge mining farms running ASIC miners? Can someone with 4 Titan-X cards even mine anything worthwhile? Given municipal electricity is very cheap, etc?
- illegalsmile 10y ago
  > Can someone with 4 Titan-X cards even mine anything worthwhile? Given municipal electricity is very cheap, etc? No.
  - jason_slack 10y ago
    and I guess it has been this way for a while. It seems you really need a huge hardware investment to mine anything and you must mine long term to even pay for the investment you made. What are current miners like, hardware wise?
    - teach 10y ago
      If bitcoin prices drop to anything like they were 6 months ago it's even worse than that: you'd spend more on electricity than you would earn by mining.
- mikeash 10y ago
  It looks like you could expect around 800 million hashes/second doing Bitcoin mining on a Titan X. The current Bitcoin hash rate is about 2.5 quintillion hashes/second. The current reward for a block is 25 bitcoins, plus whatever fees are included in the transactions which are relatively small at the moment, as I understand it. A block is mined roughly once every 10 minutes, so that's 3600 bitcoins/day mined. At $1100, that's about $4 million/day. You could expect to see, on average, an amount relative to the proportion of total hashing power you bring. That would be $4 million * 8e8 / 2.5e18 = 0.13 cents/day, approximately. (Note, not $0.13, but $0.0013.) So, yeah, not really worthwhile.
  - jason_slack 10y ago
TYPE_FASTER 10y ago
As much as I really don't care for the energy waste associated with mining, when parents at the bus stop started talking to me about production block chain deployments they were working on, it's obvious the block chain will be adopted by the enterprise.
- r00fus 10y ago
  Jeebus where do you live where that bus-stop talk happens?
asdz 10y ago
Yet Mtgox still owe me my bitcoin :/

58 points by ca98am79 10y ago

At least close to it, still a few Dollars to go, the all-time high is $1,216.73 from 2013-11-17 on the Mt. Gox. [1] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_bitcoin#Prices_and_value_history https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_bitcoin#Prices_and_...

TheDong 10y ago
Frankly that value shouldn't count. At that time, you could not get any money, USD or BTC, out of the exchange. Those were not USD, those were GOXUSD because they could not be transacted with anywhere but the exchange nor transferred. Same for the BTC there, they were GBTC, not real BTC.
- xyzzy4 10y ago
  That's not true. I withdrew some Bitcoin out of the exchange at that time. It was a month or so later when it was impossible to withdraw any funds.

droopyEyelids 10y ago

The rumors I've heard tie this to activity spurred by changes in yuan valuation. Does anyone know of a site that visualizes information that could add information to that hypothesis? I'm thinking something like trading volumes per geographical area. I'm also curious what role bitcoin could play in mitigating currency risk. Are people using it to buy foreign currencies and keep them in secret bank accounts? Are they attempting to use Bitcoin as a store of value?

curiousgal 10y ago
>trading volumes per geographical area. https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/#markets https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/#markets Sort by volume. It's not as accurate as you requested but it's close enough.
xyzzy4 10y ago
Bitcoin is very useful for three things, which are a store of value similar to gold (although it is more volatile), money remittance to other countries, and illegal or anonymous activities. I don't know how many people are using it for each, though. Also as a side note it's typically very difficult to make bank accounts in other countries if you are not a resident.
- automatwon 10y ago
  I worked in data science at a tech startup that focused on remittance ($1 billion ARR). I was also offered a position at an early stage bitcoin startup in Vietnam, one of the top 'send countries' for remittance from the U.S. This is the first and primary Bitcoin service provider in Vietnam. Bitcoin is not ideal for remittance in practice. Speed: If you use your own wallet, waiting for the blockchain to propagate might actually be slower than currency through a remittance company. I don't know what the clearing process is for Bitcoin wallets SaaS, but Bitcoin is equal to if not slower than normal remittance tech startups. After all, speed is one of the factors these remittance startups are tackling to disrupt Western Union. Rate: I can't speak universally, but doing remittance in or out of Vietnam with Bitcoin was too high last year. ~5% if we go USD -> BTC -> VND. ~10% in the reverse. These rates are indicative of the local currency being worthless. I also remember transferring Bitcoin internally in the U.S. last year through SaaS would eat out half a percentage. Foreign workers who remit to their loved ones are price sensitive. That leaves Bitcoin as remittance viable to people who aren't price sensitive, at the asset of more anonymity. IMO, dirty money is not price sensitive. 10% fee to launder money is cheap. If you're already going down this road though, Vietnam mom and pop shops offer practically free remittance. They are unlikely to be regulated. And again, local Vietnam currency is useless. It's not stable or a good store of value. The government sets artificial exchange rates. People in Vietnam desperately want to exchange their money for USD, and are willing to pay a premium, which is still better than the governments rate, and so the remittance shop is able to offer people sending USD to Vietnam a free service. A Bitcoin provider will have to exchange to and from the local currency if it's to be used for remittance. In the case of Vietnam, the exchange must exchange Bitcoin for the more worthless local currency, and hence charge the higher exchange rate. The provider in Vietnam has an underlying market exchange, actually, where there is no liquidity because people with Bitcoin expect a huge premium to exchange it for local currency. I think Vietnam's situation can be generalized to other remittance countries where the local currency is undesired, and the government has locked down people exchanging it for USD.
the_rosentotter 10y ago
The chart in this article (Washington Post two days ago) shows the correlation between bitcoin price and yuan devaluation (scroll to the middle of the article): https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/01/03/why-bitcoin-just-had-an-amazing-year/?utm_term=.7c83f52f2679 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/01/03/why-b... (Not a very strong correlation, in my opinion. Note the short arbitrary time period chosen.)
DesiLurker 10y ago
perhaps also something to do with indian demonetization of large currency bills.
nullc 10y ago
> I'm thinking something like trading volumes per geographical area. There are a number of exchanges in China with zero cost trades, which distorts volume figures.
momentmaker 10y ago
This site tracks live where in the world people are buying Bitcoins from. http://fiatleak.com/ http://fiatleak.com/ Most of the volumes do come from China.
- dwaltrip 10y ago
  You have to be careful. Most people believe the volume numbers reported by Chinese exchanges are heavily inflated. Edit: I was incorrect. See below, it seems this doesn't apply for this website as they aren't using volume data from exchanges.
  - facepalm 10y ago
    I would expect the data to be from the blockchain and GeoIP of node from which the transaction originated? Of course still not 100% reliable, as theoretically people could use any node, but still interesting.
    - dwaltrip 10y ago
      Oh, hmm, that makes sense. It's looking at IPs of actual transactions, not off-chain trading volumes. Thanks for clarifying, I'll update my comment.

the_rosentotter 10y ago

Go bitcoin! An alternative monetary system can only be a very good thing, and bitcoin is one of a very short list of contenders.

pg314 10y ago
> can only be a very good thing, No. It has enabled the rise of ransomware.
- oleganza 10y ago
  So did computers and tcp/ip. Should we roll them back too?
  - pg314 10y ago
    No, that doesn't follow from my statement. I was pointing out why 'can only be a very good thing' might be wrong. If bitcoin's advantages are enough to offset its drawbacks (of which enabling ransomware is one), that is a good thing. That is not a given, though.

bdcravens 10y ago

Not sure where they're getting that data; Bitstamp's all time high was 1163 which hasn't been broken yet (likely will today) http://bitcoinity.org/markets/bitstamp/USD http://bitcoinity.org/markets/bitstamp/USD

curiousgal 10y ago
Many Exchanges have prices higher than that. https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/#markets https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/#markets
- bdcravens 10y ago
  True, but I think you want to limit yourself to BTC/USD pairs, and to exchanges that were trading at the last ATH.

Marazan 10y ago

While not as strong as previous years the bitcoin price-to-GoogleSearchPopularity correlation is still strong. For previous spikes price leads the search popularity on the upswing but search popularity leads price on the downslope.

gchokov 10y ago

The baloon will pop out soon. It's clearly a balloon - people using it to get money out of China. At some point, what goes in, will go out. Money Flow.

pat2man 10y ago
There will be another country where this happens. The fact that Bitcoin works well in this situation is further proof that it is a decent currency for international trade.
- technotony 10y ago
  New York times suggests this boom is caused by India and Venezuela, so yes other countries are picking up on this: http://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/03/business/dealbook/bitcoin-price-soars-fueled-by-speculation-and-global-currency-turmoil.html?_r=0 http://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/03/business/dealbook/bitcoin-...
  - pg314 10y ago
    And speculation, as it says in the headline of that NYT article. The volume of bitcoins bought with bolivars (Venezuela's currency) is inherently limited: you would only want to sell bitcoins in exchange for bolivars if you could spend the bolivars immediately. That basically limits the sellers to people already having bitcoin and living in Bolivia.
- gchokov 10y ago
  These are all valid comments.
nickthemagicman 10y ago
Doubtful. This is literally a revolutionary technology like the internet. The only hash coin that has proven stable over the long term. Why won't it just keep rising?
- gchokov 10y ago

nchuhoai 10y ago

Does anyone know how to buy put options on Bitcoin? Or any other limited loss way of shorting bitcoin?

xyzzy4 10y ago
You can borrow Bitcoin from a friend, sell the Bitcoin on an exchange, and then buy your friend the same amount of Bitcoin a month from now.
- bboreham 10y ago
  That's a future, not an option. The potential loss is unlimited.
  - jerguismi 10y ago
    Potential loss = unlimited amount of money + friendship
pat2man 10y ago
A few options mentioned here: http://cryptorials.io/how-to-short-bitcoin-5-ways-to-profit-from-a-falling-btc-price/ http://cryptorials.io/how-to-short-bitcoin-5-ways-to-profit-...
vessenes 10y ago
If you are willing to take some counterparty risk (and who isn't, amiright?) bitfinex has plenty of leverage and options-type trading. Chinese exchanges also offer high leverage to many customers if you really like the idea of gambling.
jboggan 10y ago
Years ago I built an options and futures trading platform for Bitcoin but we were strangled by regulatory compliance and I shut it down. There are always a few around but the problem with the market is that no major holder of Bitcoin wants to hedge their position in the slightest. It's such a highly volatile asset in and of itself.

popol12 10y ago

Don't think about bitcoin as a western individual. Think of it like you were in a poor/developping country, where 95% of the population doesn't have a bank account. Well, bitcoin gives an international bank account to anyone. With the growth of internet in these areas, Bitcoin will grow.

watty 10y ago
Right, but what % of those people in poor/developing countries have the internet access and knowledge to securely manage a Bitcoin attack?
- andrewd18 10y ago
  Given how regularly Western Bitcoin exchanges are hacked, I'm not convinced anyone has the knowledge to securely manage a Bitcoin attack.
- facepalm 10y ago
  You mean an attack on their phone to steal the coins from their wallet?
drcode 10y ago
The problem right is that $0.25 transaction fees are now common- Not exactly ideal for a developing country (though the current price spike is mostly unexplained, so it's totally possible it is succeeding for some developing country use cases, despite the high fees)
- elastic_church 10y ago
  Its more like 25 cents to exit one economy for an international one denominated in bitcoin.
mamcx 10y ago
Except when is rule out of the law, as in Colombia where is prohibited (under the premise is only used by scammers): http://www.eltiempo.com/tecnosfera/novedades-tecnologia/bitcoin-en-colombia/16780487 http://www.eltiempo.com/tecnosfera/novedades-tecnologia/bitc...

bagosm 10y ago

Does this article take into account bitcoins that are in wallets lost forever?

jason_slack 10y ago

Is BitCoin mining still mostly done by huge mining farms running ASIC miners? Can someone with 4 Titan-X cards even mine anything worthwhile? Given municipal electricity is very cheap, etc?

illegalsmile 10y ago
> Can someone with 4 Titan-X cards even mine anything worthwhile? Given municipal electricity is very cheap, etc? No.
- jason_slack 10y ago
  and I guess it has been this way for a while. It seems you really need a huge hardware investment to mine anything and you must mine long term to even pay for the investment you made. What are current miners like, hardware wise?
  - teach 10y ago
    If bitcoin prices drop to anything like they were 6 months ago it's even worse than that: you'd spend more on electricity than you would earn by mining.
mikeash 10y ago
It looks like you could expect around 800 million hashes/second doing Bitcoin mining on a Titan X. The current Bitcoin hash rate is about 2.5 quintillion hashes/second. The current reward for a block is 25 bitcoins, plus whatever fees are included in the transactions which are relatively small at the moment, as I understand it. A block is mined roughly once every 10 minutes, so that's 3600 bitcoins/day mined. At $1100, that's about $4 million/day. You could expect to see, on average, an amount relative to the proportion of total hashing power you bring. That would be $4 million * 8e8 / 2.5e18 = 0.13 cents/day, approximately. (Note, not $0.13, but $0.0013.) So, yeah, not really worthwhile.
- jason_slack 10y ago

TYPE_FASTER 10y ago

As much as I really don't care for the energy waste associated with mining, when parents at the bus stop started talking to me about production block chain deployments they were working on, it's obvious the block chain will be adopted by the enterprise.

r00fus 10y ago
Jeebus where do you live where that bus-stop talk happens?

asdz 10y ago

Yet Mtgox still owe me my bitcoin :/