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Ask HN: Will Bitcoin price collapse again in 2017?

8 points by samnwa 10y ago

wmf 10y ago
Yes, the boom-bust cycle will continue.
ca98am79 10y ago
not this time. Think of all of the buyers - people wanting bitcoin. Now think of who is selling at this price - I don't see a compelling reason to sell. More buyers and not enough sellers = price goes up. "It is one of the great paradoxes of the stock market that what seems too high usually goes higher and what seems too low usually goes lower" - William O'Neil
imaginenore 10y ago
Nobody knows the future. People who are giving you definitive answers are guessing at best.
bbcbasic 10y ago
Since the value is based on confidence and it is not backed by anything ... who knows? Same sentence applies to fiat currency too although there is so much interest in keeping those stable that they are unlikely to tank.
- dr_win 10y ago
  If something (a commodity) has limited supply and there is non-zero demand => it has a value. Demand for fiat currencies is at least generated by legal tender laws (you need it to pay taxes). Demand for bitcoin is at least generated by the need to publish some information in a global immutable distributed censorship-proof table. Those two sources of demand are the fundamental ones (I would say intrinsic). There definitely are more. Some demand is for example generated by "store of value" function or "medium of exchange" function. These functions emerge as secondary functions when a commodity is selected by market for its favourable properties. So I would disagree that "bitcoin is not backed by anything". You might have written "I don't see the intrinsic value backing bitcoin" or "bitcoin is not backed by anything tangible". Those statements would be correct.
- eb0la 10y ago
  I feel some amount of Bitcoin is backed by fear. Specifically from countries that are removing bills like India or Venezuela. Years ago you had to buy dollars or gold but Bitcoin is somewhat opaque to that governments because there is yet very little people involved
oleganza 10y ago
Yes. From $10-15K to $5-7K. Just like it collapsed from $1000 to $300 in 2014, or from $270 to $100 in 2013, or from $15 to $10 in 2012, or from $30 to $3 in 2011.
sayurichick 10y ago
how would HN know? no one can predict with actual certainty. However, It is true that as time goes on, volatility reduces. high price makes it harder to fluctuate as quickly, and as new bitcoin continue to get mined, the volume increases as well.
m-p-3 10y ago
As Bitcoin price increases, there will most likely be attempts at achieving virtual heist of exchanges. Usually the Bitcoin price goes down right after a big one. If exchanges are not maintaining good security practices, it will happen sooner than later.
vcarela 10y ago
What you really want to know is whether to buy now or not and there is no answer for that. But as others pointed out, bitcoin & cia is no longer a crazy idea from Internet. It is now a deeply studied idea that has been around for quite a long time, so people started to trust in it, and after all, this is mainly a matter of confidence.
27182818284 10y ago
Sure. It is nowhere near stable: https://twitter.com/sama/status/791754651506909186 https://twitter.com/sama/status/791754651506909186
endswapper 10y ago
This may not answer your question directly, but it certainly represents the volatility implied by your question: 1/5/17 "Bitcoin lost $3 billion in market value in 40 minutes[0]" [0]https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13332551 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13332551

8 points by samnwa 10y ago

wmf 10y ago

Yes, the boom-bust cycle will continue.

not this time. Think of all of the buyers - people wanting bitcoin. Now think of who is selling at this price - I don't see a compelling reason to sell. More buyers and not enough sellers = price goes up. "It is one of the great paradoxes of the stock market that what seems too high usually goes higher and what seems too low usually goes lower" - William O'Neil

imaginenore 10y ago

Nobody knows the future. People who are giving you definitive answers are guessing at best.

bbcbasic 10y ago

Since the value is based on confidence and it is not backed by anything ... who knows? Same sentence applies to fiat currency too although there is so much interest in keeping those stable that they are unlikely to tank.

dr_win 10y ago
If something (a commodity) has limited supply and there is non-zero demand => it has a value. Demand for fiat currencies is at least generated by legal tender laws (you need it to pay taxes). Demand for bitcoin is at least generated by the need to publish some information in a global immutable distributed censorship-proof table. Those two sources of demand are the fundamental ones (I would say intrinsic). There definitely are more. Some demand is for example generated by "store of value" function or "medium of exchange" function. These functions emerge as secondary functions when a commodity is selected by market for its favourable properties. So I would disagree that "bitcoin is not backed by anything". You might have written "I don't see the intrinsic value backing bitcoin" or "bitcoin is not backed by anything tangible". Those statements would be correct.
eb0la 10y ago
I feel some amount of Bitcoin is backed by fear. Specifically from countries that are removing bills like India or Venezuela. Years ago you had to buy dollars or gold but Bitcoin is somewhat opaque to that governments because there is yet very little people involved

oleganza 10y ago

Yes. From $10-15K to $5-7K. Just like it collapsed from $1000 to $300 in 2014, or from $270 to $100 in 2013, or from $15 to $10 in 2012, or from $30 to $3 in 2011.

sayurichick 10y ago

how would HN know? no one can predict with actual certainty. However, It is true that as time goes on, volatility reduces. high price makes it harder to fluctuate as quickly, and as new bitcoin continue to get mined, the volume increases as well.

m-p-3 10y ago

As Bitcoin price increases, there will most likely be attempts at achieving virtual heist of exchanges. Usually the Bitcoin price goes down right after a big one. If exchanges are not maintaining good security practices, it will happen sooner than later.

vcarela 10y ago

What you really want to know is whether to buy now or not and there is no answer for that. But as others pointed out, bitcoin & cia is no longer a crazy idea from Internet. It is now a deeply studied idea that has been around for quite a long time, so people started to trust in it, and after all, this is mainly a matter of confidence.

27182818284 10y ago

Sure. It is nowhere near stable: https://twitter.com/sama/status/791754651506909186 https://twitter.com/sama/status/791754651506909186

endswapper 10y ago

This may not answer your question directly, but it certainly represents the volatility implied by your question: 1/5/17 "Bitcoin lost $3 billion in market value in 40 minutes[0]" [0]https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13332551 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13332551