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If anyone who thinks yes wants to bet $1000 I'll do 1:10 odds. https://longbets.org https://longbets.org
by shpx 10y ago
If anyone who thinks yes wants to bet $1000 I'll do 1:10 odds.
https://longbets.org https://longbets.org
- natch 10y agoFor 2017? From the site: "minimum bet period is two years"
- shpx 10y agoI'll extend my bet to 2018. I'd extend it much more because the real odds of AGI are closer to 1:100, but any longer time scale would be a bad return on my money.
- enraged_camel 10y agoI always thought betting money (especially with a site like long bets) was about holding people accountable to their claims, rather than the expectation of actual return. :)
- natch 10y agoI think it's more about bragging and joining an exclusive club (example: I have this opinion, and I have a pile of money sitting around that I can dedicate to promoting it amongst a small group of other people I want to impress). The stated purpose of holding people accountable, I have never bought. People who are really working on the ideas discussed (as opposed to just talking about them and positioning themselves as "futurists") are accountable in a much more profound way, in that they build their entire lives around working toward some goal, with all the risk and opportunity cost that entails. The long bets participants are just playing around, not real players. They may have a little skin in the game, but it's faux skin.
- natch 10y agoI wouldn't use that site. It would make you look like a blowhard. YMMV though... you might not care.