4 ms·

> But by and large, the programmers at the other end of the bell curve did just fine... Sure doesn't align with the experience I had or any of my tech friends

> But by and large, the programmers at the other end of the bell curve did just fine... Sure doesn't align with the experience I had or any of my tech friends had in the UK in the post-Y2K bust. The only person I know who did "just fine" had, through sheer luck, joined a huge corporate 6 months before bust. Yes there was a lot of incompetent garbage that got cleared out too. Some were laughably bad. But for decent folks... The contract market effectively disappeared for 2-4yrs+. (Good luck going back to perm). A friend who was CTO of a "best place to work.." SME watched them shrink from ~180 people to 10 or so. When he exited he was on 1/3 the rate. Then there was the friend, who was a truly excellent developer, who had his home repossessed as he had effectively zero income for 3+ years. He got out of IT completely in the end. Another buddy, who was a little older, took early retirement and his wife went full time (non-IT). Or another friend who disappeared at home repossession, never heard of since. Then there was the after effects of all the ex seniors, contractors and CTO chasing everything they could do right down to junior roles just to pay the bills. Quite a few ended up tiding over in something far beneath them on half or less salary. Many took a 5-15 year hit on career taking years to get back to similar seniority (often pay never recovered). There was perhaps 5 years of take abnything you can get and keep your head down. Hirers only look at the previous role and rate for "dev" that was you surviving, not the ones before of CTO and years of lead. Ex-contractors or ex-founders are often frowned on. That was for the folks at the decent end of the bell curve. The types that were always learning.

rhapsodic 10y ago
My perception is strictly anecdotal, based on my experience in the US, in the medium size city where I live, which is neither a tech hub nor a tech desert. I still feel fairly confident that if the unemployment rate among programmers in the US was to rise to, for example, an enormous 15%, I would be able to keep myself among the 85% that remains employed. I wonder if your experience, which is quite different from mine, has to do with the differences between labor laws in the US and the UK. In the US, programmers are virtually all non-union, and employers can be fairly choosy in who they keep and who they get rid of. Is it perhaps the case in the UK that, by law, most downsizing has to be seniority-based rather than merit-based?
- anexprogrammer 10y ago
  Very much anecdotal, and I'm sure I saw people hit harder than many in quiet, unexciting companies who just kept working - I was contracting as were a fair number of my friends. It felt like a nationwide hard stop - there was almost nothing but agency fishing expeditions going on jobserve. > fairly confident ... I would be able to keep myself among the 85% that remains employed. For my whole career upto the dot com bust in 01 I'd have confidently agreed. After 2.5 years struggling to get work and seeing the same with skilled friends I realised how much was down to luck. By the time I got work again many opinions had changed. I still have much of the frugality. Certainly I knew of US people having issue, and I was surprised to read recently on HN [1] someone widely known having a very similar experience. Not sure about laws - I don't think so, it seemed to affect everything. Definitely not unions though. Unions and IT is rare, though there are some union members in govt, or old industries. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12218583 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12218583

rhapsodic 10y ago

My perception is strictly anecdotal, based on my experience in the US, in the medium size city where I live, which is neither a tech hub nor a tech desert. I still feel fairly confident that if the unemployment rate among programmers in the US was to rise to, for example, an enormous 15%, I would be able to keep myself among the 85% that remains employed. I wonder if your experience, which is quite different from mine, has to do with the differences between labor laws in the US and the UK. In the US, programmers are virtually all non-union, and employers can be fairly choosy in who they keep and who they get rid of. Is it perhaps the case in the UK that, by law, most downsizing has to be seniority-based rather than merit-based?

anexprogrammer 10y ago
Very much anecdotal, and I'm sure I saw people hit harder than many in quiet, unexciting companies who just kept working - I was contracting as were a fair number of my friends. It felt like a nationwide hard stop - there was almost nothing but agency fishing expeditions going on jobserve. > fairly confident ... I would be able to keep myself among the 85% that remains employed. For my whole career upto the dot com bust in 01 I'd have confidently agreed. After 2.5 years struggling to get work and seeing the same with skilled friends I realised how much was down to luck. By the time I got work again many opinions had changed. I still have much of the frugality. Certainly I knew of US people having issue, and I was surprised to read recently on HN [1] someone widely known having a very similar experience. Not sure about laws - I don't think so, it seemed to affect everything. Definitely not unions though. Unions and IT is rare, though there are some union members in govt, or old industries. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12218583 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12218583