8 ms·

Well if valley types have their way and automate 40% or more of jobs in the next ten years, then what actually is the alternative? This or major uprisings and v

Well if valley types have their way and automate 40% or more of jobs in the next ten years, then what actually is the alternative? This or major uprisings and violent clashes?

paulddraper 10y ago
> automate 40% or more of jobs in the next ten years No scheme on earth could automate 40% of jobs in a decade. > what actually is the alternative As a proportion of total U.S. jobs, farming declined steadily 5% per decade from 1800 to 1970. Imagine telling a youth in 1900 that in his lifetime, 35% of the nation's jobs would disappear. People will have nothing to do!!
- willvarfar 10y ago
  For a sense of what humans are capable of when motivated to work towards a common goal, look at the mass mobilization of the recent world wars. You may think it improbable, but surely you think it still possible?
- ThomPete 10y ago
  Between 98-2004 the US lost 4 million jobs to the Chinese. In that same period the chinese lost 15 million jobs to automation. I don't think most people understand how fast this is going mostly because we work in the part that still benefit from this. When automated cars and truck become a reality then 12 million jobs in the us are in danger. Transportation being the one job that can't be outsourced to other countries (contrary to Europe) is the most common job in the US. Once that's gone so are their jobs. And can we please stop comparing to farming and the luddite fallacy they are completely missing the point of whats going on right now. Did the horses get new jobs when cars started taking over? Technology replaces jobs that require higher and higher levels of abstraction and while technology keeps improving humans only improve to the extent that technology allows them to. Also here is another good example of a huge manufactorer who is going to get rid of all their people. It's here faster than you think. http://www.theverge.com/2016/12/30/14128870/foxconn-robots-automation-apple-iphone-china-manufacturing http://www.theverge.com/2016/12/30/14128870/foxconn-robots-a...
  - rhino369 10y ago
    But this type of thing has been happening routinely since the industrial revolution. Secretary used to be the biggest job in America and now it's virtually gone because of technological progress. Do you know how many clerks were automated away when the database was created? Maybe this time is different, but you can't assume it will be.
    - ThomPete 10y ago
      Yes and each decade less and less jobs are created. Now the kind of jobs that are created in the US are primarily either low paid jobs or temporary jobs (which means no healthcare which means much harder to live off) On top of that the cost of living is going up. So the trend is actually showing us exactly that. If your claim is that new jobs will be created you need to show those new jobs cause they are needed right now and I don't see what area you are referring to which should be able to take over. Saying we don't know is not an argument when the trends show the opposite.
      - rhino369 10y ago
        >If your claim is that new jobs will be created you need to show those new jobs cause they are needed right now and I don't see what area you are referring to which should be able to take over. Predicting what the new jobs will is very hard. Someone in 1870 couldn't predict that a large percent of Americans would stop farming and instead manufacture cars, radios, and refrigerators. Those things hadn't been invented yet. Also, sometimes automation brings cost down and unlocks demand that increases the number of jobs in total. More people worked in auto manufacturing after the factory line was invented than before, despite it drastically reducing the man hours per car. There may be a period of high unemployment, but the cheap labor will find uses. Well, it always has in the past. Against this time might be different if automation is easy enough to replace nearly all low skill human labor.
        ThomPete 10y ago
        It's not really that hard to predict. Unless you are somehow expecting technology to stop improving and humans to somehow improve exponentially the trend is pretty clear. Machines will be able to do most of the things we do at levels we haven't seen before. It's not hard to predict new jobs if they are there, they should already be there and you should be able to point to them. The numbers speak for themselves. As I said the number of new jobs created have actually gone down decade over decade in the US. The real danger is saying things like "jobs will come" thats not an argument when you can't point to it, then it just become a religious belief in something there is absolutely no evidence for.
onion2k 10y ago
Universal Basic Income was first popularised (in a small way, and really only among economists) in the Triple Revolution report[1] given to Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. It was a report on how the US might change in the near future, and it was the work of some very distinguished thinkers (there are at least 3 Nobel prize winners in the list of signatories). The three revolutions that made up the 'triple' were Civil Rights, Weaponry (specifically nuclear weapons), and Automation. The first two came to pass in more or less obvious ways, but the third (automation) is only really happening now - there isn't much alternative if work is automated away unless you think having a hugely wealthy elite controlling everything while everyone else starves is a good idea. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Triple_Revolution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Triple_Revolution

Well if valley types have their way and automate 40% or more of jobs in the next ten years, then what actually is the alternative? This or major uprisings and violent clashes?

paulddraper 10y ago

> automate 40% or more of jobs in the next ten years No scheme on earth could automate 40% of jobs in a decade. > what actually is the alternative As a proportion of total U.S. jobs, farming declined steadily 5% per decade from 1800 to 1970. Imagine telling a youth in 1900 that in his lifetime, 35% of the nation's jobs would disappear. People will have nothing to do!!

willvarfar 10y ago
For a sense of what humans are capable of when motivated to work towards a common goal, look at the mass mobilization of the recent world wars. You may think it improbable, but surely you think it still possible?
ThomPete 10y ago
Between 98-2004 the US lost 4 million jobs to the Chinese. In that same period the chinese lost 15 million jobs to automation. I don't think most people understand how fast this is going mostly because we work in the part that still benefit from this. When automated cars and truck become a reality then 12 million jobs in the us are in danger. Transportation being the one job that can't be outsourced to other countries (contrary to Europe) is the most common job in the US. Once that's gone so are their jobs. And can we please stop comparing to farming and the luddite fallacy they are completely missing the point of whats going on right now. Did the horses get new jobs when cars started taking over? Technology replaces jobs that require higher and higher levels of abstraction and while technology keeps improving humans only improve to the extent that technology allows them to. Also here is another good example of a huge manufactorer who is going to get rid of all their people. It's here faster than you think. http://www.theverge.com/2016/12/30/14128870/foxconn-robots-automation-apple-iphone-china-manufacturing http://www.theverge.com/2016/12/30/14128870/foxconn-robots-a...
- rhino369 10y ago
  But this type of thing has been happening routinely since the industrial revolution. Secretary used to be the biggest job in America and now it's virtually gone because of technological progress. Do you know how many clerks were automated away when the database was created? Maybe this time is different, but you can't assume it will be.
  - ThomPete 10y ago
    Yes and each decade less and less jobs are created. Now the kind of jobs that are created in the US are primarily either low paid jobs or temporary jobs (which means no healthcare which means much harder to live off) On top of that the cost of living is going up. So the trend is actually showing us exactly that. If your claim is that new jobs will be created you need to show those new jobs cause they are needed right now and I don't see what area you are referring to which should be able to take over. Saying we don't know is not an argument when the trends show the opposite.
    - rhino369 10y ago
      >If your claim is that new jobs will be created you need to show those new jobs cause they are needed right now and I don't see what area you are referring to which should be able to take over. Predicting what the new jobs will is very hard. Someone in 1870 couldn't predict that a large percent of Americans would stop farming and instead manufacture cars, radios, and refrigerators. Those things hadn't been invented yet. Also, sometimes automation brings cost down and unlocks demand that increases the number of jobs in total. More people worked in auto manufacturing after the factory line was invented than before, despite it drastically reducing the man hours per car. There may be a period of high unemployment, but the cheap labor will find uses. Well, it always has in the past. Against this time might be different if automation is easy enough to replace nearly all low skill human labor.
      - ThomPete 10y ago
        It's not really that hard to predict. Unless you are somehow expecting technology to stop improving and humans to somehow improve exponentially the trend is pretty clear. Machines will be able to do most of the things we do at levels we haven't seen before. It's not hard to predict new jobs if they are there, they should already be there and you should be able to point to them. The numbers speak for themselves. As I said the number of new jobs created have actually gone down decade over decade in the US. The real danger is saying things like "jobs will come" thats not an argument when you can't point to it, then it just become a religious belief in something there is absolutely no evidence for.

onion2k 10y ago

Universal Basic Income was first popularised (in a small way, and really only among economists) in the Triple Revolution report[1] given to Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. It was a report on how the US might change in the near future, and it was the work of some very distinguished thinkers (there are at least 3 Nobel prize winners in the list of signatories). The three revolutions that made up the 'triple' were Civil Rights, Weaponry (specifically nuclear weapons), and Automation. The first two came to pass in more or less obvious ways, but the third (automation) is only really happening now - there isn't much alternative if work is automated away unless you think having a hugely wealthy elite controlling everything while everyone else starves is a good idea. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Triple_Revolution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Triple_Revolution