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Risk is always relative. If you have enough capital, you can afford to focus solely on the long run, and plan positions accordingly. In general portfolio theory
by huac 10y ago
Risk is always relative. If you have enough capital, you can afford to focus solely on the long run, and plan positions accordingly. In general portfolio theory managers aim to optimize an objective - for short term hedge funds that's typically Sharpe ratio or just net return, but for long term focus (e.g. a rich family), you focus on minimizing the probability of shortfall.
That is, your family is going to spend some x% of your wealth every year. Then you only need to return x% on the fund (approximately) on a yearly basis. There is very little real risk associated with this strategy, if you're rich and needing to earn a small percent of your total assets, say 3%. Now, if your family isn't rich, you're probably going to need to spend much more than 3% in income, and your probability of shortfall increases dramatically.
This is similar to how college endowments work - do you think Harvard's endowment has a high chance of going dry anytime soon? Tangentially, their tax-free status is tied to spending 5% of the assets each year, which actually makes their job a lot harder, and is why they need to still raise money.
- h4nkoslo 10y ago"There is very little real risk associated with this strategy" Once you get to inter-generational wealth there is catastrophic risk that is almost uninsurable; managing that risk is extremely difficult. It is not as simple as "buy bonds", you have to deal with things like confiscatory tax rates, hyperinflation, default, being targeted by the government as a juicy source of funds, fall of a government you had previously been associated with, a dumb heir coming into control of the fortune and getting swindled... If being rich was easy everyone would do it.
- huac 10y agoThere is diversifiable risk and there is non-diversifiable risk. Everyone is subject to non-diversifiable risk, and there's plenty of risk associated with being poor, such as not having enough food to eat.