3 ms·
a constant change respecting an infinite and broad amount of variables (macroeconomic), a complex system (repeating exact past actions, will not give you the sa
by ynniv 10y ago
a constant change respecting an infinite and broad amount of variables (macroeconomic), a complex system (repeating exact past actions, will not give you the same results) and a social interaction/conflict regarding an ambiguous valuation of a price, it becomes incredibly difficult to determine those laws and rules.
Just like driving a car.
- dsacco 10y agoWell, no, not really. Ideally a car has a definable spec, such as a road with consistent markers. Steering within a consistent set of lines and reacting to other cars on the road is difficult enough, especially if you try to account for random behavior from other drivers. Modeling and forecasting a security's price mathematically, or a set of security prices, is complex in a different sort of way. A better analogy would be like trying to program a car to deal with a meteorite that suddenly hits the road in a random spot, or a bomb that goes off 100 feet in front of the car as it's cruising on the road. There are far fewer rules with which to start a foundation, and the entire macroeconomic structure is far more delicate and in constant flux from news, other traders competing against you, information closed to the market, etc. With cars, you at least get a road, and add randomness in with other drivers. With security prices, you might have a lower bound of potential losses, if you're buying long. It's just a different animal.