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We're talking about 200,000 transactions per day. If the estimates of a userbase of 1 million 3 years ago were correct then it only takes one transaction every

We're talking about 200,000 transactions per day. If the estimates of a userbase of 1 million 3 years ago were correct then it only takes one transaction every 5 days per user for their to be no need for new users. I don't mean to imply there have been zero new users I just don't believe there is much actual growth in users when accounting for churn. >But even assuming the stats failed to report say 100 ATM decommissioned per year, the # of ATMs would still be increasing quite nicely % increase because actual numbers are so low but I'll reserve judgement on this for another year since we're talking about less than 1000 machines tops world wide in 3 years of creating them. >MSFT There was a stage there where everyone was promoting that they were accepting bitcoin for a bit then it all died off again when companies realised that bitcoin = no sales. >here my point was that attracting VC investment Attracted VC investment in the past tense. None of the VC has paid off or even looks particularly promising at this point and as such has fallen off a cliff. >Overstock: yes they report very low Bitcoin payments. Along with every other retailer that has made any comment about volume since starting to accept bitcoin. You claim that non-black market volume has taken over but I've yet to see a single success case in bitcoin retailing. Bitcoin has a long history of things that were killer apps or going to take it mainstream and all of them have failed. From changetip, to lighthouse, to OB, to 21inc. >I doubt seeing an upward trend in the Coinbase MAU numbers would convince you. You are the "climate change denier" of Bitcoin, so you would probably claim their users are speculators and not legit users :) Seeing real numbers would definitely convince me. I've never hesitated to admit where I've been wrong when it comes to stuff in the space and I've been wrong about a number of things(especially wasting time arguing about this stuff which I did improve on dramatically last year and I think I'll go back to improving on so last reply). But I've also been right about a lot. Anyhow hope your travels are going well if you're still on them which I assume you are as it appears you're near my timezone.

mrb 10y ago
"I don't mean to imply there have been zero new users" Yes, you literally wrote "[Bitcoin] hasn't succeeded anywhere". "I just don't believe there is much actual growth in users when accounting for churn." ? I honestly think you are trolling now... You can't seriously be thinking that out of this 8x tx rate growth, there isn't "much growth in users". Even being very very generous with your argument and assuming the average user transacts 4x more, then it still means the userbase grew 2x which would still be a significant success. "Attracted VC investment in the past tense" False, investments are still taking place. Here are some deals from 2016: http://bravenewcoin.com/news/bitcoins-biggest-venture-capital-deals-of-2016-so-far/ http://bravenewcoin.com/news/bitcoins-biggest-venture-capita... Over the last 3 years (which is the period of time where you argued "Bitcoin hasn't succeeded anywhere") there has been $0.5-1.0 billion invested in Bitcoin companies, directly contradicting your claim. "take it mainstream and all of them have failed" Again, again, and again: tx rate grew 8x, # of ATMs grew, # of merchants accepting Bitcoin grew, price shot up, VC investment are being made, userbase grew, etc. But despite this growth which directly contradicts you, you continue to make statements like "EVERYTHING HAS FAILED"... Bitcoin going mainstream will take 10-20 years or more, and so far it's growing very nicely. The world is not a dichotomy. It's not either "Bitcoin is completely mainstream" or "EVERYTHING HAS FAILED". Sorry I think you are either (1) intentionally trolling or (2) have an issue with admitting when you are wrong (despite you stating otherwise). I appreciate you attempting to be friendly. But I don't know if you are doing (1) or (2) so I can't afford to waste any more time in this discussion :-( I came back from my trip and started a company. Busy times ahead.
- sanswork 10y ago
  I'm not trolling I just don't agree that any of those things indicate success only that some people hope it will be successful(and are betting on it) which is the same as the price to me. I do agree that we shouldn't interact anymore though. Good luck with your company.

mrb 10y ago

"I don't mean to imply there have been zero new users" Yes, you literally wrote "[Bitcoin] hasn't succeeded anywhere". "I just don't believe there is much actual growth in users when accounting for churn." ? I honestly think you are trolling now... You can't seriously be thinking that out of this 8x tx rate growth, there isn't "much growth in users". Even being very very generous with your argument and assuming the average user transacts 4x more, then it still means the userbase grew 2x which would still be a significant success. "Attracted VC investment in the past tense" False, investments are still taking place. Here are some deals from 2016: http://bravenewcoin.com/news/bitcoins-biggest-venture-capital-deals-of-2016-so-far/ http://bravenewcoin.com/news/bitcoins-biggest-venture-capita... Over the last 3 years (which is the period of time where you argued "Bitcoin hasn't succeeded anywhere") there has been $0.5-1.0 billion invested in Bitcoin companies, directly contradicting your claim. "take it mainstream and all of them have failed" Again, again, and again: tx rate grew 8x, # of ATMs grew, # of merchants accepting Bitcoin grew, price shot up, VC investment are being made, userbase grew, etc. But despite this growth which directly contradicts you, you continue to make statements like "EVERYTHING HAS FAILED"... Bitcoin going mainstream will take 10-20 years or more, and so far it's growing very nicely. The world is not a dichotomy. It's not either "Bitcoin is completely mainstream" or "EVERYTHING HAS FAILED". Sorry I think you are either (1) intentionally trolling or (2) have an issue with admitting when you are wrong (despite you stating otherwise). I appreciate you attempting to be friendly. But I don't know if you are doing (1) or (2) so I can't afford to waste any more time in this discussion :-( I came back from my trip and started a company. Busy times ahead.

sanswork 10y ago
I'm not trolling I just don't agree that any of those things indicate success only that some people hope it will be successful(and are betting on it) which is the same as the price to me. I do agree that we shouldn't interact anymore though. Good luck with your company.