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I've been following it fairly closely though not as much over 2016. >a combination of more users, more businesses Or the same users using it more, or the incr

I've been following it fairly closely though not as much over 2016. >a combination of more users, more businesses Or the same users using it more, or the increase in tumbling services or anything really. >Millions of dollars were poured by many vendors into developing cutting edge mining ASICs—clearly a sign that at least multiple tech businesses are betting on a long-term success of Bitcoin. Miners increased their investments though given the arms race at the moment we have no indication if these are wise investments. >The number of Bitcoin ATMS is doubling every 18 months I don't believe they remove inactive/removed BTMs from those stats. It's pretty common on /r/bitcoin to have posts about going into shops where a BTM should be only to find it removed or unplugged and pushed to the corner. >Bitcoin commerce is no longer driven by "sin" activities That paper says nothing about legitimate commerce only of exchanges. >The largest publicly traded company, MSFT, started accepting Bitcoin Microsoft isn't even in the top 20. And they haven't really done anything since then. >March 2015: largest funding round ever for a Bitcoin company for $116 million Who released an overpriced raspberry pi and have not done anything since. At the start of 2015 through to the end of the first quarter it was claimed that 1b in vc would happen in 2015. The year ended with less than half of that with half of that being funds raised by 2 companies. In 2016 it's dropped back below 2014 levels with 1/3rd of the claimed bitcoin VC going to non-bitcoin companies like Ripple. >Bitcoin economic activity/interest has never looked so healthy. ~2 years ago we discussed Overstock and our expectations for it. Go back to around that time and look at your expectations for now. We still have no bitcoin companies reporting MAU though I'm hoping the Coinbase lawsuit makes them show actual user numbers.

mrb 10y ago
"Or the same users using it more, or the increase in tumbling services or anything really." Ludicrous. There is no way this 8x tx growth is due in its entirety to the same userbase using Bitcoin 8x more. Or the same userbase somehow deciding their bitcoins need 8x more tumbling. For starters, tumbling leads to long tx chains and even when ignoring these long chains the tx rate has still increased by the same 8x amount: https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-chains-longer-than-100?daysAverageString=7&timespan=all https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-chai... We are not talking about 20% growth, or 50%, or even 2x, where your argument of "the same users using Bitcoin more" might hypothetically be valid. But EIGHT X growth. If Bitcoin is so useful that its userbase uses it 8x more over a span of 3 years, it is impossible that Bitcoin gained ZERO new users in that period. At the very least, you can't be aware of this 8x growth and write matter-of-factly that Bitcoin "hasn't succeeded anywhere" (or no one will take you seriously.) Note: I'm not claiming an 8x tx rate growth means an 8x userbase growth. Maybe the userbase grew 4x and existing users use it 2x more, but even that would be a sign of success for Bitcoin. Brief replies to your other most important points (going to bed): ATMs: they do account for decommissioned ATMs (the stats may be delayed eg. updated only after a user reporting the ATM as no-longer-existent). But even assuming the stats failed to report say 100 ATM decommissioned per year, the # of ATMs would still be increasing quite nicely... MSFT: I meant the "largest publicly traded company to accept Bitcoin" with my point being that attracting very large companies to accept it is, again, a sign of success for Bitcoin. 21 LLC: here my point was that attracting VC investment (even if 2016 investments are down compared to 2015) is a sign of success. Overstock: yes they report very low Bitcoin payments. But does it mean Bitcoin "hasn't succeeded anywhere"? No! See above. Bottom line, with the tx rate increasing, # of ATMs increasing, # of merchants increasing, investments in companies, etc (even accounting for error margins for your concerns) you can't stick your head in the sand and claim truthfully that Bitcoin "hasn't succeeded anywhere". This was an untrue statement for you to make. PS: I doubt seeing an upward trend in the Coinbase MAU numbers would convince you. You are the "climate change denier" of Bitcoin, so you would probably claim their users are speculators and not legit users :)
- sanswork 10y ago
  We're talking about 200,000 transactions per day. If the estimates of a userbase of 1 million 3 years ago were correct then it only takes one transaction every 5 days per user for their to be no need for new users. I don't mean to imply there have been zero new users I just don't believe there is much actual growth in users when accounting for churn. >But even assuming the stats failed to report say 100 ATM decommissioned per year, the # of ATMs would still be increasing quite nicely % increase because actual numbers are so low but I'll reserve judgement on this for another year since we're talking about less than 1000 machines tops world wide in 3 years of creating them. >MSFT There was a stage there where everyone was promoting that they were accepting bitcoin for a bit then it all died off again when companies realised that bitcoin = no sales. >here my point was that attracting VC investment Attracted VC investment in the past tense. None of the VC has paid off or even looks particularly promising at this point and as such has fallen off a cliff. >Overstock: yes they report very low Bitcoin payments. Along with every other retailer that has made any comment about volume since starting to accept bitcoin. You claim that non-black market volume has taken over but I've yet to see a single success case in bitcoin retailing. Bitcoin has a long history of things that were killer apps or going to take it mainstream and all of them have failed. From changetip, to lighthouse, to OB, to 21inc. >I doubt seeing an upward trend in the Coinbase MAU numbers would convince you. You are the "climate change denier" of Bitcoin, so you would probably claim their users are speculators and not legit users :) Seeing real numbers would definitely convince me. I've never hesitated to admit where I've been wrong when it comes to stuff in the space and I've been wrong about a number of things(especially wasting time arguing about this stuff which I did improve on dramatically last year and I think I'll go back to improving on so last reply). But I've also been right about a lot. Anyhow hope your travels are going well if you're still on them which I assume you are as it appears you're near my timezone.
  - mrb 10y ago
    "I don't mean to imply there have been zero new users" Yes, you literally wrote "[Bitcoin] hasn't succeeded anywhere". "I just don't believe there is much actual growth in users when accounting for churn." ? I honestly think you are trolling now... You can't seriously be thinking that out of this 8x tx rate growth, there isn't "much growth in users". Even being very very generous with your argument and assuming the average user transacts 4x more, then it still means the userbase grew 2x which would still be a significant success. "Attracted VC investment in the past tense" False, investments are still taking place. Here are some deals from 2016: http://bravenewcoin.com/news/bitcoins-biggest-venture-capital-deals-of-2016-so-far/ http://bravenewcoin.com/news/bitcoins-biggest-venture-capita... Over the last 3 years (which is the period of time where you argued "Bitcoin hasn't succeeded anywhere") there has been $0.5-1.0 billion invested in Bitcoin companies, directly contradicting your claim. "take it mainstream and all of them have failed" Again, again, and again: tx rate grew 8x, # of ATMs grew, # of merchants accepting Bitcoin grew, price shot up, VC investment are being made, userbase grew, etc. But despite this growth which directly contradicts you, you continue to make statements like "EVERYTHING HAS FAILED"... Bitcoin going mainstream will take 10-20 years or more, and so far it's growing very nicely. The world is not a dichotomy. It's not either "Bitcoin is completely mainstream" or "EVERYTHING HAS FAILED". Sorry I think you are either (1) intentionally trolling or (2) have an issue with admitting when you are wrong (despite you stating otherwise). I appreciate you attempting to be friendly. But I don't know if you are doing (1) or (2) so I can't afford to waste any more time in this discussion :-( I came back from my trip and started a company. Busy times ahead.
csomar 10y ago
Your points are valid. But let me give you my opinion (or why I invested heavily in Bitcoin in 2015) While the West Bitcoin Bubble has almost died, the number of transactions is real. And users currently are paying $100k every single day to transact on the bitcoin blockchain. $100k in transaction fees for a sustained period is not some users tumbling their coins, spam or some guys writing data on the blockchain. $100k everyday is a huge money amount. So there is some real economic activity going on. But where is it coming from? China (the obvious one), Russia ( https://coin.dance/volume/localbitcoins/RUB https://coin.dance/volume/localbitcoins/RUB ), Nigeria ( https://www.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=NG&q=bitcoin https://www.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=NG&q=bitc... ) and several other countries. In my opinion, Bitcoin just got its killer app. And no it's not drugs (though evading capital controls is not completely white hat though one can make the point that free capital flows are synonymous to free speech). Countries that can follow next: India, MiddleEast (pakistan), North Africa (algeria), South America ( Vez and Brazil). These are countries with terrible economies, but they are Huge.

mrb 10y ago

"Or the same users using it more, or the increase in tumbling services or anything really." Ludicrous. There is no way this 8x tx growth is due in its entirety to the same userbase using Bitcoin 8x more. Or the same userbase somehow deciding their bitcoins need 8x more tumbling. For starters, tumbling leads to long tx chains and even when ignoring these long chains the tx rate has still increased by the same 8x amount: https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-chains-longer-than-100?daysAverageString=7&timespan=all https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-chai... We are not talking about 20% growth, or 50%, or even 2x, where your argument of "the same users using Bitcoin more" might hypothetically be valid. But EIGHT X growth. If Bitcoin is so useful that its userbase uses it 8x more over a span of 3 years, it is impossible that Bitcoin gained ZERO new users in that period. At the very least, you can't be aware of this 8x growth and write matter-of-factly that Bitcoin "hasn't succeeded anywhere" (or no one will take you seriously.) Note: I'm not claiming an 8x tx rate growth means an 8x userbase growth. Maybe the userbase grew 4x and existing users use it 2x more, but even that would be a sign of success for Bitcoin. Brief replies to your other most important points (going to bed): ATMs: they do account for decommissioned ATMs (the stats may be delayed eg. updated only after a user reporting the ATM as no-longer-existent). But even assuming the stats failed to report say 100 ATM decommissioned per year, the # of ATMs would still be increasing quite nicely... MSFT: I meant the "largest publicly traded company to accept Bitcoin" with my point being that attracting very large companies to accept it is, again, a sign of success for Bitcoin. 21 LLC: here my point was that attracting VC investment (even if 2016 investments are down compared to 2015) is a sign of success. Overstock: yes they report very low Bitcoin payments. But does it mean Bitcoin "hasn't succeeded anywhere"? No! See above. Bottom line, with the tx rate increasing, # of ATMs increasing, # of merchants increasing, investments in companies, etc (even accounting for error margins for your concerns) you can't stick your head in the sand and claim truthfully that Bitcoin "hasn't succeeded anywhere". This was an untrue statement for you to make. PS: I doubt seeing an upward trend in the Coinbase MAU numbers would convince you. You are the "climate change denier" of Bitcoin, so you would probably claim their users are speculators and not legit users :)

sanswork 10y ago
We're talking about 200,000 transactions per day. If the estimates of a userbase of 1 million 3 years ago were correct then it only takes one transaction every 5 days per user for their to be no need for new users. I don't mean to imply there have been zero new users I just don't believe there is much actual growth in users when accounting for churn. >But even assuming the stats failed to report say 100 ATM decommissioned per year, the # of ATMs would still be increasing quite nicely % increase because actual numbers are so low but I'll reserve judgement on this for another year since we're talking about less than 1000 machines tops world wide in 3 years of creating them. >MSFT There was a stage there where everyone was promoting that they were accepting bitcoin for a bit then it all died off again when companies realised that bitcoin = no sales. >here my point was that attracting VC investment Attracted VC investment in the past tense. None of the VC has paid off or even looks particularly promising at this point and as such has fallen off a cliff. >Overstock: yes they report very low Bitcoin payments. Along with every other retailer that has made any comment about volume since starting to accept bitcoin. You claim that non-black market volume has taken over but I've yet to see a single success case in bitcoin retailing. Bitcoin has a long history of things that were killer apps or going to take it mainstream and all of them have failed. From changetip, to lighthouse, to OB, to 21inc. >I doubt seeing an upward trend in the Coinbase MAU numbers would convince you. You are the "climate change denier" of Bitcoin, so you would probably claim their users are speculators and not legit users :) Seeing real numbers would definitely convince me. I've never hesitated to admit where I've been wrong when it comes to stuff in the space and I've been wrong about a number of things(especially wasting time arguing about this stuff which I did improve on dramatically last year and I think I'll go back to improving on so last reply). But I've also been right about a lot. Anyhow hope your travels are going well if you're still on them which I assume you are as it appears you're near my timezone.
- mrb 10y ago
  "I don't mean to imply there have been zero new users" Yes, you literally wrote "[Bitcoin] hasn't succeeded anywhere". "I just don't believe there is much actual growth in users when accounting for churn." ? I honestly think you are trolling now... You can't seriously be thinking that out of this 8x tx rate growth, there isn't "much growth in users". Even being very very generous with your argument and assuming the average user transacts 4x more, then it still means the userbase grew 2x which would still be a significant success. "Attracted VC investment in the past tense" False, investments are still taking place. Here are some deals from 2016: http://bravenewcoin.com/news/bitcoins-biggest-venture-capital-deals-of-2016-so-far/ http://bravenewcoin.com/news/bitcoins-biggest-venture-capita... Over the last 3 years (which is the period of time where you argued "Bitcoin hasn't succeeded anywhere") there has been $0.5-1.0 billion invested in Bitcoin companies, directly contradicting your claim. "take it mainstream and all of them have failed" Again, again, and again: tx rate grew 8x, # of ATMs grew, # of merchants accepting Bitcoin grew, price shot up, VC investment are being made, userbase grew, etc. But despite this growth which directly contradicts you, you continue to make statements like "EVERYTHING HAS FAILED"... Bitcoin going mainstream will take 10-20 years or more, and so far it's growing very nicely. The world is not a dichotomy. It's not either "Bitcoin is completely mainstream" or "EVERYTHING HAS FAILED". Sorry I think you are either (1) intentionally trolling or (2) have an issue with admitting when you are wrong (despite you stating otherwise). I appreciate you attempting to be friendly. But I don't know if you are doing (1) or (2) so I can't afford to waste any more time in this discussion :-( I came back from my trip and started a company. Busy times ahead.

csomar 10y ago

Your points are valid. But let me give you my opinion (or why I invested heavily in Bitcoin in 2015) While the West Bitcoin Bubble has almost died, the number of transactions is real. And users currently are paying $100k every single day to transact on the bitcoin blockchain. $100k in transaction fees for a sustained period is not some users tumbling their coins, spam or some guys writing data on the blockchain. $100k everyday is a huge money amount. So there is some real economic activity going on. But where is it coming from? China (the obvious one), Russia ( https://coin.dance/volume/localbitcoins/RUB https://coin.dance/volume/localbitcoins/RUB ), Nigeria ( https://www.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=NG&q=bitcoin https://www.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=NG&q=bitc... ) and several other countries. In my opinion, Bitcoin just got its killer app. And no it's not drugs (though evading capital controls is not completely white hat though one can make the point that free capital flows are synonymous to free speech). Countries that can follow next: India, MiddleEast (pakistan), North Africa (algeria), South America ( Vez and Brazil). These are countries with terrible economies, but they are Huge.