4 ms·
But if you start throwing the dice and you keep all the sixes you get along the way, Yahtzee-style, we expect you'll have 20 sixes in about 25-30 throws. But t
by kirse 10y ago
But if you start throwing the dice and you keep all the sixes you get along the way, Yahtzee-style, we expect you'll have 20 sixes in about 25-30 throws.
But this scenario has the implicit assumption of a deterministic outcome (all 6s), and also that after each throw, the outcome of chance is being analyzed according to a set of rules, which are being applied such that keeping/discarding dice is done to produce a deterministic outcome.
Even if you deny that there is traditional "intelligence" in the process such as a dice thrower, the scenario still fails to answer why there is even a set of rules for evaluating these independent dice throws in the first place, where these rules came from, and why those rules seemingly guide events of completely random chance in a pre-determined direction at all (all 6s).
- 0xcde4c3db 10y agoThe choice of a predetermined goal and an unchanging, deterministic selection function are just simplifying assumptions to make the analogy easier. Neither of those things is required for evolutionary processes to occur.
- kirse 10y agoNeither of those things is required for evolutionary processes to occur. "Evolution works like a Yahtzee dice game minus all the Yahtzee rules"... How does that make sense? "Chess works like checkers except you remove all the checkers rules and just play chess"
- 0xcde4c3db 10y agoThe key points are: 1) the process is iterative, not a single "roll" that has to turn out right 2) each generation is a modification of the previous one, not a completely new "roll" 3) some states more likely to progress to the next generation than others We occur in an environment where these conditions are satisfied. Why that is the case is a question well beyond the scope of evolutionary theory.