4 ms·

Imagine if someone asked you: Highly complex software project A costs $x/KLOC, highly complex project B costs $10x/KLOC, and therefore isn't project B wasteful?

Imagine if someone asked you: Highly complex software project A costs $x/KLOC, highly complex project B costs $10x/KLOC, and therefore isn't project B wasteful? It's impossible to answer based on that information, and you probably know far more about software projects than you do about underground urban transit projects. Many of the comparisons in the article seem to be similar to that, and with projects that seem far more complex, technically and politically, than what most of us deal with. Other than the fact that all the projects mentioned are called 'trains' or 'subways', and I assume are mostly underground, I don't have enough information to say they are comparable at all. Sometimes, there is no way for the layperson to analyze the situation on their own. EDIT: Minor edits

threatofrain 10y ago
Sadly true, but I wonder what that means because the layman in a democracy is called upon to be knowledgeable enough to identify whether their elected politicians are mismanaging projects, or if in fact this public transit project is doing well and on the way to success.
- hackuser 10y ago
  I know the ideal is that we can decide for ourselves, but the reality is that in most things in life, we lack the expertise. I'm not a plumber, doctor, police officer, etc. Sometimes they are obviously right or wrong. Otherwise, I can try to second-guess them based on some limited or amateur knowledge here and there, but I know that when laypeople try that in regard to my profession, it very rarely helps them and can be a recipe for disaster. They don't even know what questions to ask. In the end, IMHO we have to decide which experts to trust - this plumber or that one; this subterranean urban transport engineer or the other one. Thanks to the open societies in modern democracies, plus modern communication, we have a plethora of experts and voices to choose from, but it ain't perfect.
- coldtea 10y ago
  The layman is only called to be knowledgeable enough to identify whether their elected politicians are mismanaging projects after hearing expert testimony. Which is the exact same way politicians can know whether projects are not mismanaged or over-budgeted by the construction companies, etc.
- LeanderK 10y ago
  that's why good and fair journalism is so important. It should connect the dots and try to explain to the layman what's going on, while ideally being honest about the opinions of the paper and not having an explicit agenda (i am not really sure if i used that word right, for me it feels kinda extreme).
woah 10y ago
Your LOC analogy is totally ridiculous. The length of a subway line is a feature, not a meaningless statistic like LOC.
jpatokal 10y ago
Yeah, no, the US is definitely an outlier, building virtually any public infrastructure costs way more than it should. Tokyo can still build underground subway lines at 1/8th the cost: https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-04-08/why-u-s-infrastructure-costs-so-much https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-04-08/why-u-s-i... The answer why is complex, but the two big factors seem to be red tape, specifically that standards are overengineered and it takes forever to get approvals, and lack of experience and existing construction infrastructure, so instead of having a well-greased machine like Singapore's that churns out line after line in rapid succession, you need to ramp up and ramp down for every single project.
- achamayou 10y ago
  What the article refers to is a cost estimate for the Koto Waterfront line, which hasn't been approved at this point, let alone started construction. Whether it will be built on budget is anyone's guess. The route would also be in a relatively recently built area, so it's not hard to imagine why it would be cheaper to plan and execute that a route under Manhattan. I don't know very much about NYC, but the comparison does not seem fair.
  - jpatokal 10y ago
    Tokyo's newest subway the Fukutoshin line, spanning some of Tokyo's most congested areas (Shibuya, Shinjuku, Ikebukuro), cost around $250m/km, so still around 1/4 of the NYC cost.
    - cmurf 10y ago
      Where is this cost going? Manhattan has much harder soil and the new subway required an extensive dewatering and water proofing projects.
danpalmer 10y ago
I see your point, but I my feeling is that the "unknown unknowns" of the New York situation might make up a 50% difference? But we're looking at a >200% difference. As far as I'm aware, the biggest issues with building deep tunnels like this is everything that gets in the way - other tunnels, utilities, old buildings that might fall down, and rivers. The Crossrail project in the UK has a high pice tag (£15bn) but is also much larger, and given how old London and its infrastructure is, I would imagine has had to cope with a similar number of obstacles, if not more. I imagine Paris is in a similar place given its age.
- hackuser 10y ago
  > my feeling is that the "unknown unknowns" of the New York situation might make up a 50% difference? But we're looking at a >200% difference. On what basis do you have any idea?
siculars 10y ago
I have a very good friend who actually worked on this project. He was a supervisor level guy and would send me pictures from the tunnels. I believe his exact quote was "the MTA burns barrels of money like it's going out of style." The waste was unbelievably extreme. I kept telling him to write a book but he said if he did he'd never work in civil engineering again.
- breakingcups 10y ago
  Ask him to do it anonymously? I'd love to read it!
siculars 10y ago
I have a very good friend who actually worked on this project. He was a supervisor level guy and would send me pictures from the tunnels. I believe his exact quote was "the MTA burns barrels of money like it's going out of style." The waste was unbelievably extreme. I kept telling him to write a book but he said if he did he'd never work in civil engineering again.
posterboy 10y ago
>Sometimes, there is no way for the layperson to analyze the situation on their own. and that's precisely why oversight might fail and let corruption sneak in.
maverick_iceman 10y ago
That's an extremely stupid analogy. Do you seriously think that the cost variability of civil infrastructure and software are comparable?

threatofrain 10y ago

Sadly true, but I wonder what that means because the layman in a democracy is called upon to be knowledgeable enough to identify whether their elected politicians are mismanaging projects, or if in fact this public transit project is doing well and on the way to success.

hackuser 10y ago
I know the ideal is that we can decide for ourselves, but the reality is that in most things in life, we lack the expertise. I'm not a plumber, doctor, police officer, etc. Sometimes they are obviously right or wrong. Otherwise, I can try to second-guess them based on some limited or amateur knowledge here and there, but I know that when laypeople try that in regard to my profession, it very rarely helps them and can be a recipe for disaster. They don't even know what questions to ask. In the end, IMHO we have to decide which experts to trust - this plumber or that one; this subterranean urban transport engineer or the other one. Thanks to the open societies in modern democracies, plus modern communication, we have a plethora of experts and voices to choose from, but it ain't perfect.
coldtea 10y ago
The layman is only called to be knowledgeable enough to identify whether their elected politicians are mismanaging projects after hearing expert testimony. Which is the exact same way politicians can know whether projects are not mismanaged or over-budgeted by the construction companies, etc.
LeanderK 10y ago
that's why good and fair journalism is so important. It should connect the dots and try to explain to the layman what's going on, while ideally being honest about the opinions of the paper and not having an explicit agenda (i am not really sure if i used that word right, for me it feels kinda extreme).

woah 10y ago

Your LOC analogy is totally ridiculous. The length of a subway line is a feature, not a meaningless statistic like LOC.

jpatokal 10y ago

Yeah, no, the US is definitely an outlier, building virtually any public infrastructure costs way more than it should. Tokyo can still build underground subway lines at 1/8th the cost: https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-04-08/why-u-s-infrastructure-costs-so-much https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-04-08/why-u-s-i... The answer why is complex, but the two big factors seem to be red tape, specifically that standards are overengineered and it takes forever to get approvals, and lack of experience and existing construction infrastructure, so instead of having a well-greased machine like Singapore's that churns out line after line in rapid succession, you need to ramp up and ramp down for every single project.

achamayou 10y ago
What the article refers to is a cost estimate for the Koto Waterfront line, which hasn't been approved at this point, let alone started construction. Whether it will be built on budget is anyone's guess. The route would also be in a relatively recently built area, so it's not hard to imagine why it would be cheaper to plan and execute that a route under Manhattan. I don't know very much about NYC, but the comparison does not seem fair.
- jpatokal 10y ago
  Tokyo's newest subway the Fukutoshin line, spanning some of Tokyo's most congested areas (Shibuya, Shinjuku, Ikebukuro), cost around $250m/km, so still around 1/4 of the NYC cost.
  - cmurf 10y ago
    Where is this cost going? Manhattan has much harder soil and the new subway required an extensive dewatering and water proofing projects.

danpalmer 10y ago

I see your point, but I my feeling is that the "unknown unknowns" of the New York situation might make up a 50% difference? But we're looking at a >200% difference. As far as I'm aware, the biggest issues with building deep tunnels like this is everything that gets in the way - other tunnels, utilities, old buildings that might fall down, and rivers. The Crossrail project in the UK has a high pice tag (£15bn) but is also much larger, and given how old London and its infrastructure is, I would imagine has had to cope with a similar number of obstacles, if not more. I imagine Paris is in a similar place given its age.

hackuser 10y ago
> my feeling is that the "unknown unknowns" of the New York situation might make up a 50% difference? But we're looking at a >200% difference. On what basis do you have any idea?

siculars 10y ago

I have a very good friend who actually worked on this project. He was a supervisor level guy and would send me pictures from the tunnels. I believe his exact quote was "the MTA burns barrels of money like it's going out of style." The waste was unbelievably extreme. I kept telling him to write a book but he said if he did he'd never work in civil engineering again.

breakingcups 10y ago
Ask him to do it anonymously? I'd love to read it!

siculars 10y ago

posterboy 10y ago

>Sometimes, there is no way for the layperson to analyze the situation on their own. and that's precisely why oversight might fail and let corruption sneak in.

maverick_iceman 10y ago

That's an extremely stupid analogy. Do you seriously think that the cost variability of civil infrastructure and software are comparable?