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It hasn't succeeded anywhere over the past 3 years except in price. Given peoples expectations 3 years ago I'd go so far as to say it has wildly failed everyon

It hasn't succeeded anywhere over the past 3 years except in price. Given peoples expectations 3 years ago I'd go so far as to say it has wildly failed everyone in the bitcoin spaces expectations.

mrb 10y ago
"It hasn't succeeded anywhere over the past 3 years except in price." You must have been living under a rock :) In 3 years, the daily transaction rate grew 8x(!)—clearly a sign that Bitcoin use is growing: a combination of more users, more businesses, etc. An interesting aspect of looking at transaction rate is that it naturally excludes "simple speculators": those who purchase BTC on exchanges and leave the coins stored at the exchange (because a trade never even leaves a trace on the blockchain.) The number of Bitcoin ATMS has doubled in 18 months: http://themerkle.com/number-of-bitcoin-atms-has-more-than-doubled-in-past-18-months/ http://themerkle.com/number-of-bitcoin-atms-has-more-than-do... In 3 years, the global network speed grew from 10 to 2000 petahash/sec. Millions of dollars were poured by many vendors into developing cutting edge 16nm mining ASICs—clearly a sign that at least multiple tech businesses are betting on a long-term success of Bitcoin. As of August 2015 160k merchants accepted Bitcoin (up from 100k one year or so earlier): http://research.ark-invest.com/bitcoin-currency http://research.ark-invest.com/bitcoin-currency Bitcoin commerce is no longer driven by "sin" activities since Nov 2013 but instead legitimate commerce is growing and now accounting for the bulk of transactions: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2808762 https://ssrn.com/abstract=2808762 The largest publicly traded company, MSFT, started accepting Bitcoin (though just for Xbox games and Windows apps): http://www.theverge.com/2014/12/11/7375771/microsoft-supports-bitcoin-payments http://www.theverge.com/2014/12/11/7375771/microsoft-support... March 2015: largest funding round ever for a Bitcoin company for $116 million: http://themerkle.com/secretive-silicon-valley-bitcoin-startup-raises-us116m-funding/ http://themerkle.com/secretive-silicon-valley-bitcoin-startu... And more, and more... Bitcoin economic activity/interest has never looked so healthy.
- sanswork 10y ago
  I've been following it fairly closely though not as much over 2016. >a combination of more users, more businesses Or the same users using it more, or the increase in tumbling services or anything really. >Millions of dollars were poured by many vendors into developing cutting edge mining ASICs—clearly a sign that at least multiple tech businesses are betting on a long-term success of Bitcoin. Miners increased their investments though given the arms race at the moment we have no indication if these are wise investments. >The number of Bitcoin ATMS is doubling every 18 months I don't believe they remove inactive/removed BTMs from those stats. It's pretty common on /r/bitcoin to have posts about going into shops where a BTM should be only to find it removed or unplugged and pushed to the corner. >Bitcoin commerce is no longer driven by "sin" activities That paper says nothing about legitimate commerce only of exchanges. >The largest publicly traded company, MSFT, started accepting Bitcoin Microsoft isn't even in the top 20. And they haven't really done anything since then. >March 2015: largest funding round ever for a Bitcoin company for $116 million Who released an overpriced raspberry pi and have not done anything since. At the start of 2015 through to the end of the first quarter it was claimed that 1b in vc would happen in 2015. The year ended with less than half of that with half of that being funds raised by 2 companies. In 2016 it's dropped back below 2014 levels with 1/3rd of the claimed bitcoin VC going to non-bitcoin companies like Ripple. >Bitcoin economic activity/interest has never looked so healthy. ~2 years ago we discussed Overstock and our expectations for it. Go back to around that time and look at your expectations for now. We still have no bitcoin companies reporting MAU though I'm hoping the Coinbase lawsuit makes them show actual user numbers.
  - mrb 10y ago
    "Or the same users using it more, or the increase in tumbling services or anything really." Ludicrous. There is no way this 8x tx growth is due in its entirety to the same userbase using Bitcoin 8x more. Or the same userbase somehow deciding their bitcoins need 8x more tumbling. For starters, tumbling leads to long tx chains and even when ignoring these long chains the tx rate has still increased by the same 8x amount: https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-chains-longer-than-100?daysAverageString=7&timespan=all https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-chai... We are not talking about 20% growth, or 50%, or even 2x, where your argument of "the same users using Bitcoin more" might hypothetically be valid. But EIGHT X growth. If Bitcoin is so useful that its userbase uses it 8x more over a span of 3 years, it is impossible that Bitcoin gained ZERO new users in that period. At the very least, you can't be aware of this 8x growth and write matter-of-factly that Bitcoin "hasn't succeeded anywhere" (or no one will take you seriously.) Note: I'm not claiming an 8x tx rate growth means an 8x userbase growth. Maybe the userbase grew 4x and existing users use it 2x more, but even that would be a sign of success for Bitcoin. Brief replies to your other most important points (going to bed): ATMs: they do account for decommissioned ATMs (the stats may be delayed eg. updated only after a user reporting the ATM as no-longer-existent). But even assuming the stats failed to report say 100 ATM decommissioned per year, the # of ATMs would still be increasing quite nicely... MSFT: I meant the "largest publicly traded company to accept Bitcoin" with my point being that attracting very large companies to accept it is, again, a sign of success for Bitcoin. 21 LLC: here my point was that attracting VC investment (even if 2016 investments are down compared to 2015) is a sign of success. Overstock: yes they report very low Bitcoin payments. But does it mean Bitcoin "hasn't succeeded anywhere"? No! See above. Bottom line, with the tx rate increasing, # of ATMs increasing, # of merchants increasing, investments in companies, etc (even accounting for error margins for your concerns) you can't stick your head in the sand and claim truthfully that Bitcoin "hasn't succeeded anywhere". This was an untrue statement for you to make. PS: I doubt seeing an upward trend in the Coinbase MAU numbers would convince you. You are the "climate change denier" of Bitcoin, so you would probably claim their users are speculators and not legit users :)

It hasn't succeeded anywhere over the past 3 years except in price. Given peoples expectations 3 years ago I'd go so far as to say it has wildly failed everyone in the bitcoin spaces expectations.

mrb 10y ago

"It hasn't succeeded anywhere over the past 3 years except in price." You must have been living under a rock :) In 3 years, the daily transaction rate grew 8x(!)—clearly a sign that Bitcoin use is growing: a combination of more users, more businesses, etc. An interesting aspect of looking at transaction rate is that it naturally excludes "simple speculators": those who purchase BTC on exchanges and leave the coins stored at the exchange (because a trade never even leaves a trace on the blockchain.) The number of Bitcoin ATMS has doubled in 18 months: http://themerkle.com/number-of-bitcoin-atms-has-more-than-doubled-in-past-18-months/ http://themerkle.com/number-of-bitcoin-atms-has-more-than-do... In 3 years, the global network speed grew from 10 to 2000 petahash/sec. Millions of dollars were poured by many vendors into developing cutting edge 16nm mining ASICs—clearly a sign that at least multiple tech businesses are betting on a long-term success of Bitcoin. As of August 2015 160k merchants accepted Bitcoin (up from 100k one year or so earlier): http://research.ark-invest.com/bitcoin-currency http://research.ark-invest.com/bitcoin-currency Bitcoin commerce is no longer driven by "sin" activities since Nov 2013 but instead legitimate commerce is growing and now accounting for the bulk of transactions: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2808762 https://ssrn.com/abstract=2808762 The largest publicly traded company, MSFT, started accepting Bitcoin (though just for Xbox games and Windows apps): http://www.theverge.com/2014/12/11/7375771/microsoft-supports-bitcoin-payments http://www.theverge.com/2014/12/11/7375771/microsoft-support... March 2015: largest funding round ever for a Bitcoin company for $116 million: http://themerkle.com/secretive-silicon-valley-bitcoin-startup-raises-us116m-funding/ http://themerkle.com/secretive-silicon-valley-bitcoin-startu... And more, and more... Bitcoin economic activity/interest has never looked so healthy.

sanswork 10y ago
I've been following it fairly closely though not as much over 2016. >a combination of more users, more businesses Or the same users using it more, or the increase in tumbling services or anything really. >Millions of dollars were poured by many vendors into developing cutting edge mining ASICs—clearly a sign that at least multiple tech businesses are betting on a long-term success of Bitcoin. Miners increased their investments though given the arms race at the moment we have no indication if these are wise investments. >The number of Bitcoin ATMS is doubling every 18 months I don't believe they remove inactive/removed BTMs from those stats. It's pretty common on /r/bitcoin to have posts about going into shops where a BTM should be only to find it removed or unplugged and pushed to the corner. >Bitcoin commerce is no longer driven by "sin" activities That paper says nothing about legitimate commerce only of exchanges. >The largest publicly traded company, MSFT, started accepting Bitcoin Microsoft isn't even in the top 20. And they haven't really done anything since then. >March 2015: largest funding round ever for a Bitcoin company for $116 million Who released an overpriced raspberry pi and have not done anything since. At the start of 2015 through to the end of the first quarter it was claimed that 1b in vc would happen in 2015. The year ended with less than half of that with half of that being funds raised by 2 companies. In 2016 it's dropped back below 2014 levels with 1/3rd of the claimed bitcoin VC going to non-bitcoin companies like Ripple. >Bitcoin economic activity/interest has never looked so healthy. ~2 years ago we discussed Overstock and our expectations for it. Go back to around that time and look at your expectations for now. We still have no bitcoin companies reporting MAU though I'm hoping the Coinbase lawsuit makes them show actual user numbers.
- mrb 10y ago
  "Or the same users using it more, or the increase in tumbling services or anything really." Ludicrous. There is no way this 8x tx growth is due in its entirety to the same userbase using Bitcoin 8x more. Or the same userbase somehow deciding their bitcoins need 8x more tumbling. For starters, tumbling leads to long tx chains and even when ignoring these long chains the tx rate has still increased by the same 8x amount: https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-chains-longer-than-100?daysAverageString=7&timespan=all https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-chai... We are not talking about 20% growth, or 50%, or even 2x, where your argument of "the same users using Bitcoin more" might hypothetically be valid. But EIGHT X growth. If Bitcoin is so useful that its userbase uses it 8x more over a span of 3 years, it is impossible that Bitcoin gained ZERO new users in that period. At the very least, you can't be aware of this 8x growth and write matter-of-factly that Bitcoin "hasn't succeeded anywhere" (or no one will take you seriously.) Note: I'm not claiming an 8x tx rate growth means an 8x userbase growth. Maybe the userbase grew 4x and existing users use it 2x more, but even that would be a sign of success for Bitcoin. Brief replies to your other most important points (going to bed): ATMs: they do account for decommissioned ATMs (the stats may be delayed eg. updated only after a user reporting the ATM as no-longer-existent). But even assuming the stats failed to report say 100 ATM decommissioned per year, the # of ATMs would still be increasing quite nicely... MSFT: I meant the "largest publicly traded company to accept Bitcoin" with my point being that attracting very large companies to accept it is, again, a sign of success for Bitcoin. 21 LLC: here my point was that attracting VC investment (even if 2016 investments are down compared to 2015) is a sign of success. Overstock: yes they report very low Bitcoin payments. But does it mean Bitcoin "hasn't succeeded anywhere"? No! See above. Bottom line, with the tx rate increasing, # of ATMs increasing, # of merchants increasing, investments in companies, etc (even accounting for error margins for your concerns) you can't stick your head in the sand and claim truthfully that Bitcoin "hasn't succeeded anywhere". This was an untrue statement for you to make. PS: I doubt seeing an upward trend in the Coinbase MAU numbers would convince you. You are the "climate change denier" of Bitcoin, so you would probably claim their users are speculators and not legit users :)