4 ms·

Calling public awareness campaigns "extremely effective" is a vast simplification of the matter. Public awareness campaigns are good at pushing a substance towa

Calling public awareness campaigns "extremely effective" is a vast simplification of the matter. Public awareness campaigns are good at pushing a substance towards being banned. Once a substance is prohibited, it is subject to the "forbidden fruit" effect, which I've mentioned below [1]. Additionally, if public awareness campaigns continue under a ban, they're likely to induce a "boomerang" effect. For instance, the National Youth Anti-Drug Media Campaign may have promoted drug use and pro-cannabis attitudes in the young [2]. Crazy, right? Well, California did just legalize marijuana! My guess is that parent is obliquely referring to that phenomenon. In my chosen domain of rhinos, it is starting to look as though the public awareness campaigns run from 2008 to 2014 very well could've accidently spread the message that rhino horn is rare, risky, and desirable. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13287393 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13287393 [2] http://findings.org.uk/docs/Ashton_M_1.pdf http://findings.org.uk/docs/Ashton_M_1.pdf

jordigh 10y ago
So, speaking about your chosen field, Save the Rhino International and the International Rhino Foundation think rhino horns won't solve the problem: https://www.savetherhino.org/rhino_info/thorny_issues/synthetic_rhino_horn_will_it_save_the_rhino https://www.savetherhino.org/rhino_info/thorny_issues/synthe... What is your response to this? I really want to save rhinos too, and I'm not sure how to help. I've donated to both of those organisations, and I kind of want to figure out how convince Vietnam that rhino horns absolutely do not cure cancer. Why do you think synthetic horns will work instead?
- matthewmarkus 10y ago
  Not to besmirch SRT and IRF. They're good organizations that know a lot about rhinos and ecology. However, I have my doubts about their grasp of markets, psychology, history, and statistics among other things. For instance, from 2008 to 2014 they pushed the message that rhino horn was being used for medicinal purposes. As early as 2012, some intrepid investigators started to make the case that that wasn't what was driving the poaching crisis. There is now a growing consensus that Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) was a red herring all along [1, 2]. I believe they're wrong about biofabricated horn too. If you're interested, you can read my rebuttal to their objections here: https://sosv.com/why-pembient-is-confident-in-synthetic-rhino-horn/ https://sosv.com/why-pembient-is-confident-in-synthetic-rhin... TL;DR: We have Nobel Prize-winning theory (Akerlof, 2001) underlying our proposed intervention. [1] https://twitter.com/savetherhino/status/798885174520016896 https://twitter.com/savetherhino/status/798885174520016896 [2] https://wildlifejustice.org/cn/overlooked-rhino-horn-demand-decorative-purposes-china/ https://wildlifejustice.org/cn/overlooked-rhino-horn-demand-...
ulisesrmzroche 10y ago
https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/tables/trends/cig_smoking/ https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/tables/trends/ci...
- matthewmarkus 10y ago
  Yes, and? Smoking has never been outlawed; although, many have tried. I applaud demand reduction in lieu of prohibition. Once prohibition is in place, look out!

jordigh 10y ago

So, speaking about your chosen field, Save the Rhino International and the International Rhino Foundation think rhino horns won't solve the problem: https://www.savetherhino.org/rhino_info/thorny_issues/synthetic_rhino_horn_will_it_save_the_rhino https://www.savetherhino.org/rhino_info/thorny_issues/synthe... What is your response to this? I really want to save rhinos too, and I'm not sure how to help. I've donated to both of those organisations, and I kind of want to figure out how convince Vietnam that rhino horns absolutely do not cure cancer. Why do you think synthetic horns will work instead?

matthewmarkus 10y ago
Not to besmirch SRT and IRF. They're good organizations that know a lot about rhinos and ecology. However, I have my doubts about their grasp of markets, psychology, history, and statistics among other things. For instance, from 2008 to 2014 they pushed the message that rhino horn was being used for medicinal purposes. As early as 2012, some intrepid investigators started to make the case that that wasn't what was driving the poaching crisis. There is now a growing consensus that Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) was a red herring all along [1, 2]. I believe they're wrong about biofabricated horn too. If you're interested, you can read my rebuttal to their objections here: https://sosv.com/why-pembient-is-confident-in-synthetic-rhino-horn/ https://sosv.com/why-pembient-is-confident-in-synthetic-rhin... TL;DR: We have Nobel Prize-winning theory (Akerlof, 2001) underlying our proposed intervention. [1] https://twitter.com/savetherhino/status/798885174520016896 https://twitter.com/savetherhino/status/798885174520016896 [2] https://wildlifejustice.org/cn/overlooked-rhino-horn-demand-decorative-purposes-china/ https://wildlifejustice.org/cn/overlooked-rhino-horn-demand-...

ulisesrmzroche 10y ago

https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/tables/trends/cig_smoking/ https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/tables/trends/ci...

matthewmarkus 10y ago
Yes, and? Smoking has never been outlawed; although, many have tried. I applaud demand reduction in lieu of prohibition. Once prohibition is in place, look out!