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This is an annual story, not super interesting. Nikkei itself actually posted something similar at this time last year: http://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Trends/

by jonknee 10y ago

This is an annual story, not super interesting. Nikkei itself actually posted something similar at this time last year: http://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Trends/Parts-makers-brace-for-iPhone-production-cut http://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Trends/Parts-makers-brace-fo... > Apple is expected to reduce output of its latest iPhone models by around 30% in the January-March quarter compared with its original plans, according to several parts suppliers. The measure will deal a blow to Japanese and South Korean parts companies. So maybe a 10% cut is actually bullish?

snowwrestler 10y ago
Supply chain stories about Apple get posted all the time, and there is no discernible relationship between what they say and the actual sales volumes the Apple reports in the next 10-Q.
- erdevs 10y ago
  Effects don't necessarily show up in the following quarter. Moreover, it's an overstatement to say there is no relationship. iPhone sales growth slowed dramatically following previous periods where supply chain order cuts were reported (eg in Jan'13 it was reported that Apple cut orders for iPhone 5 screens and subsequently actual growth did indeed slow dramatically). There seems to be a clear relationship between some such reports and the subsequent sales growth trend.
  - argonaut 10y ago
    No, it's not an overstatement. If half the time the prediction turns out not to be true, then there is no relationship - you may as well flip a coin.
    - erdevs 10y ago
      The parent claim was that there is no relationship, but they haven't backed that claim up. Unless someone does, it's an overstatement, especially in light of evidence that these reports (from well-reputed financial news institutions, not random internet rumors) do regularly turn out to be indicative of future performance (and no presently provided evidence to the contrary). This new supply chain story also appears to be indicative of a true underlying trend in actuals as well, just as the previously cited one was. From the USA Today article on this same news: "Apple has hinted throughout the year sales of its iPhone would decline. Fiscal year revenue for 2016 dropped for the first time in fifteen years. Meanwhile, fourth quarter iPhone shipments were down 5% from the same time last year." So, that's likey 2 for 2... If you have a more rigorous analysis to back up the claim that there is no relationship historically between well-sourced reports by well-reputed and widely read financial news operations about iPhone supply chain dynamics to subsequent sales trends, then please provide it. If instead it was just an assertion from air, then it is an overstatement. One could reasonably say that the relationship is unclear. Or that it's hard to say how these reports relate to subsequent actuals. Or even that there are instances (if you can provide them) where these sorts of reports turn out to belie the trend in actuals. But saying flat out that there is no relationship meets the exact definition of overstatement unless it's backed-up.
sigmar 10y ago
>This is an annual story, not super interesting. Nikkei itself actually posted something similar at this time last year: They reference that in the second sentence
jpalomaki 10y ago
It might make sense for Apple to always overestimate the demand for their devices in the contracts made with suppliers. This would guarantee that they can manage unexpected increase in demand.

by jonknee 10y ago

snowwrestler 10y ago

Supply chain stories about Apple get posted all the time, and there is no discernible relationship between what they say and the actual sales volumes the Apple reports in the next 10-Q.

erdevs 10y ago
Effects don't necessarily show up in the following quarter. Moreover, it's an overstatement to say there is no relationship. iPhone sales growth slowed dramatically following previous periods where supply chain order cuts were reported (eg in Jan'13 it was reported that Apple cut orders for iPhone 5 screens and subsequently actual growth did indeed slow dramatically). There seems to be a clear relationship between some such reports and the subsequent sales growth trend.
- argonaut 10y ago
  No, it's not an overstatement. If half the time the prediction turns out not to be true, then there is no relationship - you may as well flip a coin.
  - erdevs 10y ago
    The parent claim was that there is no relationship, but they haven't backed that claim up. Unless someone does, it's an overstatement, especially in light of evidence that these reports (from well-reputed financial news institutions, not random internet rumors) do regularly turn out to be indicative of future performance (and no presently provided evidence to the contrary). This new supply chain story also appears to be indicative of a true underlying trend in actuals as well, just as the previously cited one was. From the USA Today article on this same news: "Apple has hinted throughout the year sales of its iPhone would decline. Fiscal year revenue for 2016 dropped for the first time in fifteen years. Meanwhile, fourth quarter iPhone shipments were down 5% from the same time last year." So, that's likey 2 for 2... If you have a more rigorous analysis to back up the claim that there is no relationship historically between well-sourced reports by well-reputed and widely read financial news operations about iPhone supply chain dynamics to subsequent sales trends, then please provide it. If instead it was just an assertion from air, then it is an overstatement. One could reasonably say that the relationship is unclear. Or that it's hard to say how these reports relate to subsequent actuals. Or even that there are instances (if you can provide them) where these sorts of reports turn out to belie the trend in actuals. But saying flat out that there is no relationship meets the exact definition of overstatement unless it's backed-up.

sigmar 10y ago

>This is an annual story, not super interesting. Nikkei itself actually posted something similar at this time last year: They reference that in the second sentence

jpalomaki 10y ago

It might make sense for Apple to always overestimate the demand for their devices in the contracts made with suppliers. This would guarantee that they can manage unexpected increase in demand.