Figuring out the null hypothesis (toy model) can be a big first step. For instance, planets should move according to an ellipse, but they don't because of the g

Figuring out the null hypothesis (toy model) can be a big first step. For instance, planets should move according to an ellipse, but they don't because of the gravitational pull of other planets and moons. This deviation from the null hypothesis can be quite informative and help with further discovery.