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My theory is that the turnout, generally, was still low; and those not turning out have a high proportion liberal voters ("whats the point" etc.). That and the
by ErrantX 17y ago
My theory is that the turnout, generally, was still low; and those not turning out have a high proportion liberal voters ("whats the point" etc.).
That and the libs didn't really capitalize on their initial success the other week.
My take? Labour will offer the Lib Dems voting reform and form a coalition with them and the SDLP - that should be enough to hold it, just.
I have to admit I was hoping for a bigger share for the Lib Dems - which would have given a more balanced coalition (whichever way they went). Now their position is weaker.
- arethuza 17y agoLabour and the LibDems will join together to form a government and change the rules ("electoral reform") so that with their combined 52% and a form of proportional representation the Tories will have real problems getting into power again. Although it looks like Nick Clegg lost he will actually end up with more power and influence than anyone from his party has had for an awfully long time. I did find the views of the SNP rather alarming - that if the Tories got in it would probably create the right conditions for them mounting a realistic campaign for independence. I have no desire to be stuck in a wee country, oil running out, with a bunch of insane socialists and RBS.
- axod 17y agoIt's unclear that libdem+labour will even be larger than conservative seats. All money is on Cameron being our next PM. I'm not sure Clegg actually has that much power, his party has lost 13 seats so far.
- robin_reala 17y agoAnd gained 8. That’s still not good, but it’s not as bad as you’re painting it. At current standings a Conservative minority govt would have 294 seats, and a Lib/Lab coalition would have 304.
- tome 17y ago304 is still nowhere near a majority (326), and it's doubtful whether it's enough to govern.
- RiderOfGiraffes 17y agoTurnout was higher than it has been in decades. In my constituency it was 71%, in the first few it was up by between 3 and 8 percentage points.
- ErrantX 17y ago> Turnout was higher than it has been in decades Singular; it's the highest since 1997. Initially it seemed very high; but the morning it looks fairly low again. 65% ish.