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Where did the Lib Dem vote go? They're going to end up with fewer seats than before. Really disappointing. Either the opinion polls are bullshit (how and/or whe

by SandB0x 17y ago

Where did the Lib Dem vote go? They're going to end up with fewer seats than before. Really disappointing. Either the opinion polls are bullshit (how and/or where are they held?) or people are just extremely fickle. What kind of person still hasn't made up their mind the day before an election? The only way Labour and the Lib Dems can form a majority government is to try and bring in a host of minority parties. It's unlikely and nobody knows how this is going to pan out.

NickPollard 17y ago
I hadn't made up my mind the day before the election because none of the parties strongly represented my views on a wide range of policy areas. In some cases I agreed with one party, in other cases with another. Therefore I have to weigh up the difference, try to work out what means more to me and what I think will be best for the country in the long run, take into account how the vote is likely to go nationally and in my constituency, and then cast the vote I think is best. There's nothing wrong with spending more time thinking before making a decision; it seems to me preferable to just following a gut instinct of whichever party you identify with.
- maw 17y ago
  Well said. The question you responded to, "What kind of person still hasn't made up their mind the day before an election?", is absurd, and that absurdity stems from unclear thinking. It's as though people think of politics as a one dimensional thing, where we could even assign numbers to different viewpoints. 0 for the hard left, 100 for the hard right; major party A is 38 and major party B is 64, and if I'm a 42 kind of guy, well, 38 is closer, so I'll vote for party A. Ridiculous, I know, but it's the only way I've managed to explain to myself why people think and say some of the things they do.
  - SandB0x 17y ago
    It's not absurd. Of course there's a continuum of views, I didn't suggest otherwise, but the parties each publish a manifesto outlining their policies well in advance and it seems bizarre to only make up your mind at the last minute. People keep "waiting to hear" what the leaders have to say on crime or the economy or whatever. It's in their manifestoes and it's fairly consistent with what they've been saying for the last few years. Policies are not decided on the fly during debates or news shows.
    - maw 17y ago
      If we pretend that there are two parties, equal in all respects, except that party A eats baby boys and party B eats baby girls, that would be a tough choice to make. I can't decide which is worse. I'd be wrestling with the choice up to the very moment of voting. Afterward, too. That's a contrived example, of course. But for many people, no party will be satisfying, and the choices to be made will not be obvious. If your opinions happen to align almost entirely, or even mostly, with a party, good for you, but for the rest of us, the choices are difficult and vexing, even if you have a long time to think them over. And, indeed, even after several elections (I've seen them while living in three countries), I'm still not sure whom I would have preferred to see win, and not for a lack of paying attention, but because each of the choices, realistic and un-, came with a complex set of tradeoffs.
ErrantX 17y ago
My theory is that the turnout, generally, was still low; and those not turning out have a high proportion liberal voters ("whats the point" etc.). That and the libs didn't really capitalize on their initial success the other week. My take? Labour will offer the Lib Dems voting reform and form a coalition with them and the SDLP - that should be enough to hold it, just. I have to admit I was hoping for a bigger share for the Lib Dems - which would have given a more balanced coalition (whichever way they went). Now their position is weaker.
- arethuza 17y ago
  Labour and the LibDems will join together to form a government and change the rules ("electoral reform") so that with their combined 52% and a form of proportional representation the Tories will have real problems getting into power again. Although it looks like Nick Clegg lost he will actually end up with more power and influence than anyone from his party has had for an awfully long time. I did find the views of the SNP rather alarming - that if the Tories got in it would probably create the right conditions for them mounting a realistic campaign for independence. I have no desire to be stuck in a wee country, oil running out, with a bunch of insane socialists and RBS.
  - axod 17y ago
    It's unclear that libdem+labour will even be larger than conservative seats. All money is on Cameron being our next PM. I'm not sure Clegg actually has that much power, his party has lost 13 seats so far.
    - robin_reala 17y ago
      And gained 8. That’s still not good, but it’s not as bad as you’re painting it. At current standings a Conservative minority govt would have 294 seats, and a Lib/Lab coalition would have 304.
      - tome 17y ago
        304 is still nowhere near a majority (326), and it's doubtful whether it's enough to govern.
ivenkys 17y ago
"Where did the Lib Dem vote go?" Two things : (A) Lib Dem lost a lot of ground after the third debate, especially on Immigration - the amnesty issue. (B) The Lib Dems almost shutout the Labour party in the final days of polling, thereby influencing the tactical voters to favour the Tories to get away from a hung parliament, obviously not enough of it.

by SandB0x 17y ago

NickPollard 17y ago

I hadn't made up my mind the day before the election because none of the parties strongly represented my views on a wide range of policy areas. In some cases I agreed with one party, in other cases with another. Therefore I have to weigh up the difference, try to work out what means more to me and what I think will be best for the country in the long run, take into account how the vote is likely to go nationally and in my constituency, and then cast the vote I think is best. There's nothing wrong with spending more time thinking before making a decision; it seems to me preferable to just following a gut instinct of whichever party you identify with.

maw 17y ago
Well said. The question you responded to, "What kind of person still hasn't made up their mind the day before an election?", is absurd, and that absurdity stems from unclear thinking. It's as though people think of politics as a one dimensional thing, where we could even assign numbers to different viewpoints. 0 for the hard left, 100 for the hard right; major party A is 38 and major party B is 64, and if I'm a 42 kind of guy, well, 38 is closer, so I'll vote for party A. Ridiculous, I know, but it's the only way I've managed to explain to myself why people think and say some of the things they do.
- SandB0x 17y ago
  It's not absurd. Of course there's a continuum of views, I didn't suggest otherwise, but the parties each publish a manifesto outlining their policies well in advance and it seems bizarre to only make up your mind at the last minute. People keep "waiting to hear" what the leaders have to say on crime or the economy or whatever. It's in their manifestoes and it's fairly consistent with what they've been saying for the last few years. Policies are not decided on the fly during debates or news shows.
  - maw 17y ago
    If we pretend that there are two parties, equal in all respects, except that party A eats baby boys and party B eats baby girls, that would be a tough choice to make. I can't decide which is worse. I'd be wrestling with the choice up to the very moment of voting. Afterward, too. That's a contrived example, of course. But for many people, no party will be satisfying, and the choices to be made will not be obvious. If your opinions happen to align almost entirely, or even mostly, with a party, good for you, but for the rest of us, the choices are difficult and vexing, even if you have a long time to think them over. And, indeed, even after several elections (I've seen them while living in three countries), I'm still not sure whom I would have preferred to see win, and not for a lack of paying attention, but because each of the choices, realistic and un-, came with a complex set of tradeoffs.

ErrantX 17y ago

My theory is that the turnout, generally, was still low; and those not turning out have a high proportion liberal voters ("whats the point" etc.). That and the libs didn't really capitalize on their initial success the other week. My take? Labour will offer the Lib Dems voting reform and form a coalition with them and the SDLP - that should be enough to hold it, just. I have to admit I was hoping for a bigger share for the Lib Dems - which would have given a more balanced coalition (whichever way they went). Now their position is weaker.

arethuza 17y ago
Labour and the LibDems will join together to form a government and change the rules ("electoral reform") so that with their combined 52% and a form of proportional representation the Tories will have real problems getting into power again. Although it looks like Nick Clegg lost he will actually end up with more power and influence than anyone from his party has had for an awfully long time. I did find the views of the SNP rather alarming - that if the Tories got in it would probably create the right conditions for them mounting a realistic campaign for independence. I have no desire to be stuck in a wee country, oil running out, with a bunch of insane socialists and RBS.
- axod 17y ago
  It's unclear that libdem+labour will even be larger than conservative seats. All money is on Cameron being our next PM. I'm not sure Clegg actually has that much power, his party has lost 13 seats so far.
  - robin_reala 17y ago
    And gained 8. That’s still not good, but it’s not as bad as you’re painting it. At current standings a Conservative minority govt would have 294 seats, and a Lib/Lab coalition would have 304.
    - tome 17y ago
      304 is still nowhere near a majority (326), and it's doubtful whether it's enough to govern.

ivenkys 17y ago

"Where did the Lib Dem vote go?" Two things : (A) Lib Dem lost a lot of ground after the third debate, especially on Immigration - the amnesty issue. (B) The Lib Dems almost shutout the Labour party in the final days of polling, thereby influencing the tactical voters to favour the Tories to get away from a hung parliament, obviously not enough of it.