3 ms·

I'll take the top 5 metric charity bet. I bet that by May 7, 2015, Facebook will not be in the top 5 sites as ranked by Alexa. I think it's an easy metric fre

by fnid2 16y ago

I'll take the top 5 metric charity bet. I bet that by May 7, 2015, Facebook will not be in the top 5 sites as ranked by Alexa. I think it's an easy metric free of dispute. In 5 years, we may argue, "What is a social network?" But I highly doubt facebook will be in the top 5. I choose my high school as the recipient of your money when I win. :) I'll be back here in 5 years to see who the winner is. Adding an item to my calendar now. Will respond to this post with the identity of the recipient institution.

sasmith 16y ago
What if Alexa is no longer around?
- fnid2 16y ago
  Yeah, I thought about that, or what if HN isn't around. There is http://www.longbets.org http://www.longbets.org This is the perfect bet for there. If alexa isn't around, we can substitute the most popular website ranking website.
  - qeorge 16y ago
    LongBets.org is awesome! Thanks for sharing it. This wager is tailor made for it.
- hyperbovine 16y ago
  What if the USA is no longer around?
michaelkeenan 16y ago
Thanks fnid2 for taking the bet! To clarify the terms of the bet though, I only want to bet on traffic rankings in the USA. It wouldn't surprise me if some Chinese website/s outcompete Facebook in world traffic rankings by then, but that's not really fair because the Chinese government bans Facebook. Is that acceptable to you? Can you contact me (email address in my HN profile) so I have your email address? If I win, I'll choose whatever GiveWell ranks as the most cost-effective charity at saving lives in 2015 (http://www.givewell.net/charities/top-charities http://www.givewell.net/charities/top-charities). If Alexa closes in the next five years, I suggest that the default action is to cancel the bet, unless we both agree on a new metric. I'm going to use the email reminder service 3mindme.com to remind me about this bet in 2015, and also add it to my "todo" file in case 3mindme.com doesn't exist in five years. I'm open to making additional bets with others too, so if you're reading this and want to bet, it's not too late.

by fnid2 16y ago

sasmith 16y ago

What if Alexa is no longer around?

fnid2 16y ago
Yeah, I thought about that, or what if HN isn't around. There is http://www.longbets.org http://www.longbets.org This is the perfect bet for there. If alexa isn't around, we can substitute the most popular website ranking website.
- qeorge 16y ago
  LongBets.org is awesome! Thanks for sharing it. This wager is tailor made for it.
hyperbovine 16y ago
What if the USA is no longer around?

michaelkeenan 16y ago

Thanks fnid2 for taking the bet! To clarify the terms of the bet though, I only want to bet on traffic rankings in the USA. It wouldn't surprise me if some Chinese website/s outcompete Facebook in world traffic rankings by then, but that's not really fair because the Chinese government bans Facebook. Is that acceptable to you? Can you contact me (email address in my HN profile) so I have your email address? If I win, I'll choose whatever GiveWell ranks as the most cost-effective charity at saving lives in 2015 (http://www.givewell.net/charities/top-charities http://www.givewell.net/charities/top-charities). If Alexa closes in the next five years, I suggest that the default action is to cancel the bet, unless we both agree on a new metric. I'm going to use the email reminder service 3mindme.com to remind me about this bet in 2015, and also add it to my "todo" file in case 3mindme.com doesn't exist in five years. I'm open to making additional bets with others too, so if you're reading this and want to bet, it's not too late.