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I don't think you're taking into account the inevitable regulatory and legal issues that will slow or halt the progress of self driving trucks in the coming yea

I don't think you're taking into account the inevitable regulatory and legal issues that will slow or halt the progress of self driving trucks in the coming years. The moment a robot kills a family with young children on the road you will see policy banning their use show up in the halls of congress so fast it'll make heads spin.

stevens32 10y ago
I am, and I think the industry will have the safety numbers to back up any policy decision to the point where voting against it would seem negligent.
- moxious 10y ago
  > I think the industry will have the safety numbers to back up any policy decision Why are you then confident that safety numbers will carry the day? When someone is killed by a driverless car, that's going to be an emotional issue, and the appetite for cold hard data may be limited. If safety numbers were really what people were after, it's hard to see how the US would have the gun culture that it does. Engineers put far too much faith in data, and it's why they're often so bad at politics. Look at the incoming president; what people want is frequently more important than what is.
  - stevens32 10y ago
    You're right, I'm projecting a level of reasonableness that may not be there. It will be an emotional issue, and it will probably be influenced heavily by how the media decides to play it out. Elon Musk is literally every millenial's hero, if it takes long enough that the voting population shifts heavily into that demo getting the support would be easy. But maybe not right now.
    - discreteevent 10y ago
      "literally every millennials hero". I'm afraid that's literally not correct.
  - megablast 10y ago
    You might be right, but it people really cared about car deaths they would be banned. Almost a million people are killed every year due to cars, 10x injured.
  - ArkyBeagle 10y ago
    I expected a lot more hue and cry when the guy died in June. The upshot of what I read was - these folks are, in effect, test pilots whether they know it or not, and even a good driver could have died.
michaelchisari 10y ago
We have regular mass shootings, and yet guns are still a protected industry. As much as many might believe that moral outrage drives policy, the reality is that in the US, industry drives policy. The transportation industry is powerful, and the transportation labor force is incredibly weak. I think we'll see the national government push for accelerating autonomous vehicles long before we see them push for banning them.
- ArkyBeagle 10y ago
  Yet those who are regulated cannot be expected to simply salute and execute. There kind of has to be a dialogue. And as things get more "competitive", the allure of seeking rents in the capture of regulation shines brighter. I think autonomous vehicles mean there won't be a transportation industry, per se. There would have to be some barrier to entry that's not readily apparent now. After all, "Uber for self-driving semis" under an Amazon style aggregator ...

stevens32 10y ago

I am, and I think the industry will have the safety numbers to back up any policy decision to the point where voting against it would seem negligent.

moxious 10y ago
> I think the industry will have the safety numbers to back up any policy decision Why are you then confident that safety numbers will carry the day? When someone is killed by a driverless car, that's going to be an emotional issue, and the appetite for cold hard data may be limited. If safety numbers were really what people were after, it's hard to see how the US would have the gun culture that it does. Engineers put far too much faith in data, and it's why they're often so bad at politics. Look at the incoming president; what people want is frequently more important than what is.
- stevens32 10y ago
  You're right, I'm projecting a level of reasonableness that may not be there. It will be an emotional issue, and it will probably be influenced heavily by how the media decides to play it out. Elon Musk is literally every millenial's hero, if it takes long enough that the voting population shifts heavily into that demo getting the support would be easy. But maybe not right now.
  - discreteevent 10y ago
    "literally every millennials hero". I'm afraid that's literally not correct.
- megablast 10y ago
  You might be right, but it people really cared about car deaths they would be banned. Almost a million people are killed every year due to cars, 10x injured.
- ArkyBeagle 10y ago
  I expected a lot more hue and cry when the guy died in June. The upshot of what I read was - these folks are, in effect, test pilots whether they know it or not, and even a good driver could have died.

michaelchisari 10y ago

We have regular mass shootings, and yet guns are still a protected industry. As much as many might believe that moral outrage drives policy, the reality is that in the US, industry drives policy. The transportation industry is powerful, and the transportation labor force is incredibly weak. I think we'll see the national government push for accelerating autonomous vehicles long before we see them push for banning them.

ArkyBeagle 10y ago
Yet those who are regulated cannot be expected to simply salute and execute. There kind of has to be a dialogue. And as things get more "competitive", the allure of seeking rents in the capture of regulation shines brighter. I think autonomous vehicles mean there won't be a transportation industry, per se. There would have to be some barrier to entry that's not readily apparent now. After all, "Uber for self-driving semis" under an Amazon style aggregator ...