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Facebook's usage is starting to decline, so they have to do everything they can -- while they still have users -- to maximize the value of their graph for the i
by fnid2 16y ago
Facebook's usage is starting to decline, so they have to do everything they can -- while they still have users -- to maximize the value of their graph for the investors who are going to do whatever they have to with that graph to salvage what is left of a crumbling social network.
People on facebook right now are going to be getting spammed for years and years and years, in the mail, on their birthdays, to their cell phones...
You have no idea the lengths to which people will go to salvage hundreds of millions of dollars...
- jacquesm 16y ago> Facebook's usage is starting to decline I've had that feeling for a while now, do you have any independent figures or is that a gut feeling?
- fnid2 16y agoJust a gut feeling. I've... we've known something like this was coming for a long time. Remember, MarkZ is a bit of an egomaniac. Have you seen what happens to egomaniacs when their world starts to crumble around them? Not to get overly dramatic, but you know the Russians gave him hundreds of millions of dollars. That's a lot of money. You know, in startup land, we tend to think the world works differently than the world works. Mark's investors are probably putting a huge amount of pressure on him right now and the activity on the web over the past few weeks has sent FB users leaving in droves. HN used to be full of FB fans, API fans, technical fans look how that has turned in just a couple weeks... If you were facebook and you saw your subscriber base growing and growing, then plateau, then start to decline rapidly -- uncontrollably, what would you do? What would you do if you knew that your worth was dropping just like that. Imagine having millions of dollars in the stock market today when this mess happened. You'd be sick right now. That money won't come back. Facebook's users won't come back and Mark's chances of keeping his paper billions is evaporating right before his eyes... I can see it. I can feel it. The writing is on the proverbial facebook wall.
- jacquesm 16y agoAccording to pretty much every site that ranks websites according to traffic / visitors facebook is currently #2 and rising, some hard proof that that is more than a gut feeling would go a long way towards substantiating that this is not just a tech sector issue.
- fnid2 16y agoPerhaps, but I've always been a little ahead of the curve. ;) Seriously though, it'd be impossible for anyone outside facebook to provide any hard proof of their utilization. From the outside, it's all speculation. What is your estimate on FB's future? Here's my prediction: Facebook users revolt. Another social network evolves, or an existing one becomes the dominant, perhaps orkut or ning, or foursquare. I'm not sure I'm just an observer, but I think within the two to three year mark, facebook will be about as popular among the "in crowd" as myspace is right now and we'll be talking about some other network in 10 posts to the front page of HN. Facebook will try to get someone to buy them for maybe a couple hundred million. Tons of investors will be angry. Mark will be declared the egomaniac who didn't know when to quit and he'll struggle for the rest of his life to find another successful project.